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Lorain, OH · ZIP 44028 · Census Tract 39093090200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$365K
Downside (P10)
$290K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$377K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$489K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $204K | $205K | $212K | $205K | $207K | $241K | $268K | $292K | $335K | $357K | $365K | $363K | $375K | $377K | $374K |
| YoY Change | +0.5% | +3.6% | -3.5% | +0.8% | +16.7% | +11.0% | +9.1% | +14.7% | +6.5% | +2.4% | -0.6% | +3.2% | +0.6% | -0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $317K | $307K | $290K | $328K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $430K | $458K | $489K | $419K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$317K to $430K
31.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$328K to $419K
24.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia · Columbia Station · (Tract 902) | $359K | $377K | +5.1% | |
| North Ridgeville | $328K | $369K | +12.3% | |
| Avon (Tract 013101) | $391K | $430K | +10.1% | |
| Columbia | $359K | $389K | +8.3% | |
| Avon Lake | $332K | $357K | +7.7% | |
| Avon (Tract 013202) | $331K | $330K | -0.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia · Columbia Station · (Tract 902) | $359K | $377K | +5.1% | |
| Elyria (Tract 071201) | $129K | $154K | +19.4% | |
| Lorain (Tract 022100) | $138K | $163K | +18.4% | |
| Elyria (Tract 070400) | $126K | $150K | +18.3% | |
| North Ridgeville | $326K | $381K | +16.8% | |
| Lorain (Tract 023500) | $125K | $145K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia · Columbia Station · (Tract 902) | $359K | $377K | $200K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023300) | $93K | $98K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023100) | $86K | $92K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023200) | $69K | $78K | $49K | |
| Sheffield area | $102K | $115K | $46K | |
| Lorain (Tract 097300) | $82K | $83K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.