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Fairfield, OH · ZIP 43130 · Census Tract 39045031500 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$192K
Downside (P10)
$169K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$201K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$315K
+64% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $119K | $119K | $116K | $118K | $120K | $124K | $135K | $164K | $173K | $179K | $192K | $197K | $198K | $201K | $186K |
| YoY Change | -0.2% | -2.4% | +1.2% | +1.6% | +3.8% | +8.3% | +21.9% | +5.5% | +3.5% | +7.1% | +2.5% | +0.9% | +1.5% | -7.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $166K | $169K | $169K | $167K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $243K | $265K | $315K | $214K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$166K to $243K
39.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$167K to $214K
25.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | $183K | $201K | +10.0% | |
| Lancaster area | $166K | $186K | +12.4% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 032000) | $166K | $182K | +9.9% | |
| Hocking area | $178K | $193K | +8.4% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 032100) | $186K | $194K | +4.6% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 032200) | $169K | $173K | +2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | $183K | $201K | +10.0% | |
| Rush Creek area | $261K | $307K | +17.4% | |
| Amanda | $335K | $385K | +14.8% | |
| Violet | $347K | $399K | +14.7% | |
| Liberty | $386K | $442K | +14.6% | |
| Pickerington | $329K | $375K | +14.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | $183K | $201K | $146K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 032100) | $186K | $194K | $100K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 032000) | $166K | $182K | $89K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 032200) | $169K | $173K | $84K | |
| Lancaster area | $166K | $186K | $81K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 031700) | $119K | $126K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.