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Darke, OH · ZIP 45380 · Census Tract 39037530100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$251K
Downside (P10)
$214K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$266K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$353K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $154K | $153K | $153K | $154K | $159K | $163K | $181K | $215K | $233K | $243K | $251K | $250K | $257K | $266K | $256K |
| YoY Change | -0.3% | -0.4% | +0.9% | +3.0% | +2.6% | +10.9% | +19.0% | +8.6% | +4.3% | +3.1% | -0.3% | +2.9% | +3.5% | -4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $226K | $219K | $214K | $225K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $309K | $333K | $353K | $281K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$226K to $309K
33.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$225K to $281K
21.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | $246K | $266K | +8.4% | |
| Van Buren area | $216K | $246K | +14.0% | |
| Greenville (Tract 550100) | $204K | $233K | +14.0% | |
| Allen area | $237K | $267K | +12.3% | |
| Greenville (Tract 555002) | $222K | $241K | +8.6% | |
| Greenville (Tract 555001) | $191K | $205K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | $246K | $266K | +8.4% | |
| Van Buren area | $216K | $246K | +14.0% | |
| Greenville (Tract 550100) | $204K | $233K | +14.0% | |
| Greenville (Tract 555102) | $97K | $109K | +12.6% | |
| Allen area | $237K | $267K | +12.3% | |
| Butler area | $160K | $178K | +10.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | $246K | $266K | $139K | |
| Butler area | $160K | $178K | $94K | |
| Liberty area | $154K | $163K | $87K | |
| Washington area | $126K | $137K | $76K | |
| Greenville (Tract 555102) | $97K | $109K | $63K | |
| Greenville (Tract 555101) | $106K | $111K | $61K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.