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Ulster, NY · ZIP 12561 · Census Tract 36111953300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$484K
Downside (P10)
$422K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$555K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$671K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $306K | $311K | $321K | $330K | $338K | $357K | $390K | $416K | $444K | $475K | $484K | $506K | $520K | $555K | $494K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$178,076 | -$173,076 | -$162,876 | -$154,376 | -$145,976 | -$126,776 | -$94,076 | -$67,576 | -$39,676 | -$8,576 | +$22,062 | +$35,601 | +$71,385 | +$10,483 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.8% | -35.8% | -33.7% | -31.9% | -30.2% | -26.2% | -19.4% | -14.0% | -8.2% | -1.8% | +4.6% | +7.4% | +14.7% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $416K | $421K | $422K | $443K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $569K | $656K | $671K | $557K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$416K to $569K
30.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$443K to $557K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Paltz | $483K | $555K | +15.0% | |
| Marbletown | $449K | $508K | +13.3% | |
| New Paltz (Tract 953400) | $460K | $515K | +11.9% | |
| New Paltz (Tract 953500) | $470K | $518K | +10.4% | |
| Gardiner | $465K | $491K | +5.7% | |
| Rochester | $501K | $524K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Paltz | $483K | $555K | +15.0% | |
| Ulster (Tract 000002) | $425K | $606K | +42.6% | |
| Ulster (Tract 800008) | $409K | $556K | +35.8% | |
| Ulster (Tract 080006) | $589K | $704K | +19.6% | |
| Marlborough (Tract 953800) | $386K | $462K | +19.5% | |
| Marlborough (Tract 953900) | $424K | $504K | +19.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Paltz | $483K | $555K | $249K | |
| Wawarsing | $269K | $283K | $142K | |
| Kingston (Tract 952300) | $253K | $275K | $142K | |
| Rochester | $258K | $280K | $138K | |
| Ulster | $269K | $278K | $135K | |
| Kingston (Tract 951700) | $262K | $293K | $132K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Ulster, NY · ZIP 12561 · Census Tract 36111953300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$484K
Downside (P10)
$422K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$555K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$671K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $306K | $311K | $321K | $330K | $338K | $357K | $390K | $416K | $444K | $475K | $484K | $506K | $520K | $555K | $494K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$178,076 | -$173,076 | -$162,876 | -$154,376 | -$145,976 | -$126,776 | -$94,076 | -$67,576 | -$39,676 | -$8,576 | +$22,062 | +$35,601 | +$71,385 | +$10,483 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.8% | -35.8% | -33.7% | -31.9% | -30.2% | -26.2% | -19.4% | -14.0% | -8.2% | -1.8% | +4.6% | +7.4% | +14.7% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $416K | $421K | $422K | $443K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $569K | $656K | $671K | $557K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$416K to $569K
30.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$443K to $557K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Paltz | $483K | $555K | +15.0% | |
| Marbletown | $449K | $508K | +13.3% | |
| New Paltz (Tract 953400) | $460K | $515K | +11.9% | |
| New Paltz (Tract 953500) | $470K | $518K | +10.4% | |
| Gardiner | $465K | $491K | +5.7% | |
| Rochester | $501K | $524K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Paltz | $483K | $555K | +15.0% | |
| Ulster (Tract 000002) | $425K | $606K | +42.6% | |
| Ulster (Tract 800008) | $409K | $556K | +35.8% | |
| Ulster (Tract 080006) | $589K | $704K | +19.6% | |
| Marlborough (Tract 953800) | $386K | $462K | +19.5% | |
| Marlborough (Tract 953900) | $424K | $504K | +19.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Paltz | $483K | $555K | $249K | |
| Wawarsing | $269K | $283K | $142K | |
| Kingston (Tract 952300) | $253K | $275K | $142K | |
| Rochester | $258K | $280K | $138K | |
| Ulster | $269K | $278K | $135K | |
| Kingston (Tract 951700) | $262K | $293K | $132K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
