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Suffolk, NY · ZIP 11743 · Census Tract 36103110101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.58M
Downside (P10)
$1.14M
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.56M
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.29M
+46% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$129,194 | -$203,194 | -$172,694 | -$77,994 | -$3,194 | -$162,094 | -$179,894 | -$71,494 | -$117,794 | -$42,794 | +$1,583 | +$16,424 | -$12,648 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -8.2% | -12.9% | -11.0% | -4.9% | -0.2% | -10.3% | -11.4% | -4.5% | -7.5% | -2.7% | +0.1% | +1.0% | -0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.1M | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.9M | $2.1M | $2.3M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$1.2M to $1.9M
42.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.1M to $2.3M
73.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | -0.7% | |
| Cold Spring Harbor | $1.64M | $1.83M | +12.0% | |
| Smithtown | $1.16M | $1.29M | +11.1% | |
| Dix Hills (Tract 112102) | $1.08M | $1.19M | +10.3% | |
| Dix Hills (Tract 112212) | $1.05M | $1.13M | +7.2% | |
| Huntington | $993K | $1.04M | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | -0.7% | |
| Ronkonkoma | $578K | $681K | +17.9% | |
| Fort Salonga | $800K | $939K | +17.5% | |
| Babylon | $507K | $591K | +16.6% | |
| Huntington | $718K | $834K | +16.2% | |
| Hauppauge | $652K | $757K | +16.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | $1.15M | |
| Central Islip (Tract 145703) | $467K | $523K | $227K | |
| Bay Shore (Tract 145903) | $508K | $519K | $223K | |
| Ronkonkoma | $401K | $448K | $192K | |
| Bay Shore (Tract 146004) | $382K | $415K | $189K | |
| Central Islip (Tract 145705) | $335K | $356K | $186K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Suffolk, NY · ZIP 11743 · Census Tract 36103110101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.58M
Downside (P10)
$1.14M
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.56M
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.29M
+46% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$129,194 | -$203,194 | -$172,694 | -$77,994 | -$3,194 | -$162,094 | -$179,894 | -$71,494 | -$117,794 | -$42,794 | +$1,583 | +$16,424 | -$12,648 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -8.2% | -12.9% | -11.0% | -4.9% | -0.2% | -10.3% | -11.4% | -4.5% | -7.5% | -2.7% | +0.1% | +1.0% | -0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.1M | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.9M | $2.1M | $2.3M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$1.2M to $1.9M
42.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.1M to $2.3M
73.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | -0.7% | |
| Cold Spring Harbor | $1.64M | $1.83M | +12.0% | |
| Smithtown | $1.16M | $1.29M | +11.1% | |
| Dix Hills (Tract 112102) | $1.08M | $1.19M | +10.3% | |
| Dix Hills (Tract 112212) | $1.05M | $1.13M | +7.2% | |
| Huntington | $993K | $1.04M | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | -0.7% | |
| Ronkonkoma | $578K | $681K | +17.9% | |
| Fort Salonga | $800K | $939K | +17.5% | |
| Babylon | $507K | $591K | +16.6% | |
| Huntington | $718K | $834K | +16.2% | |
| Hauppauge | $652K | $757K | +16.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | $1.15M | |
| Central Islip (Tract 145703) | $467K | $523K | $227K | |
| Bay Shore (Tract 145903) | $508K | $519K | $223K | |
| Ronkonkoma | $401K | $448K | $192K | |
| Bay Shore (Tract 146004) | $382K | $415K | $189K | |
| Central Islip (Tract 145705) | $335K | $356K | $186K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
