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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Staten Island, NY · ZIP 10306 · Census Tract 36085027900 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.10M
Downside (P10)
$914K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.30M
+17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.56M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $706K | $743K | $787K | $824K | $843K | $836K | $860K | $866K | $977K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
| YoY Change | +5.2% | +5.9% | +4.7% | +2.4% | -0.9% | +2.9% | +0.8% | +12.8% | +6.9% | +5.7% | +5.7% | +2.6% | +8.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $930K | $964K | $914K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$930K to $1.34M
35.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$914K to $1.56M
50.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Dorp · 10306 · (Tract 279) | $1.07M | $1.30M | +20.6% | |
| Stapleton (Tract 004001) | $1.06M | $1.20M | +13.3% | |
| Stapleton (Tract 017701) | $982K | $1.05M | +7.1% | |
| New Dorp | $1.07M | $1.13M | +5.2% | |
| Annadale | $1.09M | $1.13M | +3.4% | |
| Tottenville | $1.01M | $994K | -1.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Dorp · 10306 · (Tract 279) | $1.07M | $1.30M | +20.6% | |
| Mariners Harbor (Tract 031901) | $582K | $706K | +21.2% | |
| Rosebank | $686K | $828K | +20.6% | |
| Annadale | $688K | $813K | +18.2% | |
| Mariners Harbor (Tract 032300) | $298K | $350K | +17.4% | |
| Port Richmond | $638K | $748K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Dorp · 10306 · (Tract 279) | $1.07M | $1.30M | $650K | |
| Port Richmond | $549K | $585K | $261K | |
| Mariners Harbor (Tract 022300) | $419K | $491K | $258K | |
| Bulls Head | $429K | $459K | $247K | |
| Stapleton | $559K | $627K | $239K | |
| Mariners Harbor (Tract 032300) | $298K | $350K | $200K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.