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Ontario, NY · ZIP 14512 · Census Tract 36069052101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$319K
Downside (P10)
$284K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$334K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$463K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $229K | $223K | $248K | $278K | $310K | $319K | $329K | $331K | $334K | $316K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$90,584 | -$96,284 | -$71,884 | -$41,384 | -$9,884 | +$9,379 | +$11,587 | +$14,836 | -$3,013 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.4% | -30.1% | -22.5% | -13.0% | -3.1% | +2.9% | +3.6% | +4.6% | -0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $279K | $292K | $284K | $282K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $381K | $447K | $463K | $366K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$279K to $381K
30.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $366K
26.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Bristol | $317K | $334K | +5.4% | |
| Gorham | $335K | $373K | +11.3% | |
| Canandaigua (Tract 050604) | $260K | $287K | +10.6% | |
| Victor | $326K | $355K | +9.0% | |
| Canandaigua (Tract 051102) | $258K | $274K | +6.5% | |
| Canandaigua (Tract 050603) | $326K | $338K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Bristol | $317K | $334K | +5.4% | |
| Geneva (Tract 051501) | $256K | $316K | +23.2% | |
| Farmington | $249K | $294K | +18.0% | |
| Hopewell | $174K | $197K | +13.6% | |
| Phelps | $171K | $193K | +12.6% | |
| Geneva (Tract 051700) | $108K | $121K | +11.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Bristol | $317K | $334K | $179K | |
| Manchester (Tract 050304) | $156K | $172K | $94K | |
| Hopewell | $174K | $197K | $91K | |
| Geneva | $108K | $121K | $78K | |
| Manchester (Tract 050302) | $124K | $133K | $67K | |
| Manchester (Tract 050303) | $140K | $147K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Ontario, NY · ZIP 14512 · Census Tract 36069052101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$319K
Downside (P10)
$284K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$334K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$463K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $229K | $223K | $248K | $278K | $310K | $319K | $329K | $331K | $334K | $316K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$90,584 | -$96,284 | -$71,884 | -$41,384 | -$9,884 | +$9,379 | +$11,587 | +$14,836 | -$3,013 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.4% | -30.1% | -22.5% | -13.0% | -3.1% | +2.9% | +3.6% | +4.6% | -0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $279K | $292K | $284K | $282K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $381K | $447K | $463K | $366K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$279K to $381K
30.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $366K
26.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Bristol | $317K | $334K | +5.4% | |
| Gorham | $335K | $373K | +11.3% | |
| Canandaigua (Tract 050604) | $260K | $287K | +10.6% | |
| Victor | $326K | $355K | +9.0% | |
| Canandaigua (Tract 051102) | $258K | $274K | +6.5% | |
| Canandaigua (Tract 050603) | $326K | $338K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Bristol | $317K | $334K | +5.4% | |
| Geneva (Tract 051501) | $256K | $316K | +23.2% | |
| Farmington | $249K | $294K | +18.0% | |
| Hopewell | $174K | $197K | +13.6% | |
| Phelps | $171K | $193K | +12.6% | |
| Geneva (Tract 051700) | $108K | $121K | +11.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Bristol | $317K | $334K | $179K | |
| Manchester (Tract 050304) | $156K | $172K | $94K | |
| Hopewell | $174K | $197K | $91K | |
| Geneva | $108K | $121K | $78K | |
| Manchester (Tract 050302) | $124K | $133K | $67K | |
| Manchester (Tract 050303) | $140K | $147K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
