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Niagara, NY · ZIP 14012 · Census Tract 36063024102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$173K
Downside (P10)
$134K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$183K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$259K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $104K | $110K | $113K | $117K | $127K | $119K | $128K | $145K | $159K | $167K | $173K | $176K | $184K | $183K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$68,351 | -$62,451 | -$59,551 | -$55,651 | -$46,051 | -$53,451 | -$44,451 | -$27,951 | -$13,351 | -$5,551 | +$3,572 | +$11,071 | +$10,417 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -36.2% | -34.5% | -32.2% | -26.7% | -30.9% | -25.7% | -16.2% | -7.7% | -3.2% | +2.1% | +6.4% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $154K | $146K | $134K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $225K | $244K | $259K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$154K to $225K
40.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$134K to $259K
68.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somerset | $169K | $183K | +8.1% | |
| Newfane (Tract 024202) | $170K | $195K | +14.8% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 022902) | $175K | $200K | +14.5% | |
| Newfane (Tract 024201) | $169K | $193K | +14.1% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 023302) | $172K | $181K | +5.6% | |
| Wilson | $177K | $183K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somerset | $169K | $183K | +8.1% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 023301) | $232K | $274K | +18.1% | |
| Niagara Falls | $158K | $185K | +16.9% | |
| Wheatfield | $333K | $389K | +16.9% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 022803) | $239K | $276K | +15.3% | |
| Lockport | $199K | $228K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somerset | $169K | $183K | $125K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 020200) | $61K | $64K | $35K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 020900) | $60K | $67K | $35K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 021200) | $56K | $61K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Niagara, NY · ZIP 14012 · Census Tract 36063024102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$173K
Downside (P10)
$134K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$183K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$259K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $104K | $110K | $113K | $117K | $127K | $119K | $128K | $145K | $159K | $167K | $173K | $176K | $184K | $183K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$68,351 | -$62,451 | -$59,551 | -$55,651 | -$46,051 | -$53,451 | -$44,451 | -$27,951 | -$13,351 | -$5,551 | +$3,572 | +$11,071 | +$10,417 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -36.2% | -34.5% | -32.2% | -26.7% | -30.9% | -25.7% | -16.2% | -7.7% | -3.2% | +2.1% | +6.4% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $154K | $146K | $134K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $225K | $244K | $259K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$154K to $225K
40.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$134K to $259K
68.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somerset | $169K | $183K | +8.1% | |
| Newfane (Tract 024202) | $170K | $195K | +14.8% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 022902) | $175K | $200K | +14.5% | |
| Newfane (Tract 024201) | $169K | $193K | +14.1% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 023302) | $172K | $181K | +5.6% | |
| Wilson | $177K | $183K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somerset | $169K | $183K | +8.1% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 023301) | $232K | $274K | +18.1% | |
| Niagara Falls | $158K | $185K | +16.9% | |
| Wheatfield | $333K | $389K | +16.9% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 022803) | $239K | $276K | +15.3% | |
| Lockport | $199K | $228K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somerset | $169K | $183K | $125K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 020200) | $61K | $64K | $35K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 020900) | $60K | $67K | $35K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 021200) | $56K | $61K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
