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Niagara, NY · ZIP 14094 · Census Tract 36063023901 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$154K
Downside (P10)
$131K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$165K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$211K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $95K | $95K | $97K | $98K | $103K | $109K | $115K | $123K | $140K | $150K | $154K | $154K | $161K | $165K | $156K |
| YoY Change | -0.2% | +2.5% | +1.2% | +4.7% | +6.1% | +5.0% | +7.5% | +13.5% | +6.9% | +2.6% | +0.0% | +4.5% | +3.0% | -5.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $129K | $132K | $131K | $138K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $203K | $221K | $211K | $176K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$129K to $203K
47.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$138K to $176K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lockport · 14094 · (Tract 239.1) | $151K | $165K | +9.7% | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 022300) | $156K | $171K | +9.8% | |
| Niagara | $152K | $165K | +8.8% | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 022401) | $152K | $164K | +8.1% | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 022500) | $156K | $166K | +5.9% | |
| Lockport | $155K | $164K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lockport · 14094 · (Tract 239.1) | $151K | $165K | +9.7% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 023301) | $232K | $274K | +18.1% | |
| Niagara Falls | $158K | $185K | +16.9% | |
| Wheatfield | $333K | $389K | +16.9% | |
| North Tonawanda (Tract 022803) | $239K | $276K | +15.3% | |
| Lockport | $199K | $228K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lockport · 14094 · (Tract 239.1) | $151K | $165K | $80K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 020200) | $61K | $64K | $35K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 020900) | $60K | $67K | $35K | |
| Niagara Falls (Tract 021200) | $56K | $61K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.