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Nassau, NY · ZIP 11566 · Census Tract 36059408400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$649K
Downside (P10)
$495K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$690K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.00M
+54% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $439K | $443K | $446K | $455K | $475K | $518K | $540K | $607K | $629K | $641K | $649K | $649K | $668K | $690K | $663K |
| YoY Change | +0.9% | +0.7% | +1.9% | +4.6% | +9.0% | +4.2% | +12.4% | +3.6% | +1.9% | +1.4% | -0.1% | +3.0% | +3.3% | -3.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $539K | $507K | $495K | $593K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $790K | $875K | $1.0M | $745K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$539K to $790K
38.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$593K to $745K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Merrick · Merrick · (Tract 4084) | $647K | $690K | +6.7% | |
| Seaford | $648K | $703K | +8.4% | |
| East Meadow (Tract 408100) | $649K | $690K | +6.3% | |
| South Valley Stream | $652K | $674K | +3.4% | |
| East Meadow (Tract 408000) | $651K | $658K | +1.1% | |
| Oceanside | $652K | $641K | -1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Merrick · Merrick · (Tract 4084) | $647K | $690K | +6.7% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Merrick · Merrick · (Tract 4084) | $647K | $690K | $507K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Freeport | $451K | $472K | $215K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.