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Nassau, NY · ZIP 11021 · Census Tract 36059300600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.21M
Downside (P10)
$970K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.25M
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.67M
+38% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $838K | $863K | $885K | $929K | $954K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | +2.9% | +2.6% | +4.9% | +2.7% | +5.6% | +0.9% | +15.5% | -2.3% | +4.4% | +1.5% | -0.3% | +3.8% | -0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.1M | $995K | $970K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.08M to $1.41M
27.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$970K to $1.67M
56.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead · Great Neck · (Tract 3006) | $1.18M | $1.25M | +6.2% | |
| Woodbury | $1.21M | $1.39M | +14.6% | |
| East Hills | $1.23M | $1.41M | +14.0% | |
| North Hills | $1.25M | $1.33M | +6.3% | |
| Searingtown | $1.14M | $1.21M | +5.4% | |
| Garden City | $1.18M | $1.15M | -2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead · Great Neck · (Tract 3006) | $1.18M | $1.25M | +6.2% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead · Great Neck · (Tract 3006) | $1.18M | $1.25M | $701K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Freeport | $451K | $472K | $215K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.