Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
Manhattan, NY · ZIP 10040 · Census Tract 36061027900 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$425K
Downside (P10)
$333K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$489K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$660K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $365K | $330K | $421K | $437K | $438K | $543K | $468K | $450K | $439K | $432K | $425K | $444K | $458K | $489K |
| YoY Change | -9.8% | +27.9% | +3.7% | +0.1% | +24.0% | -13.9% | -3.9% | -2.4% | -1.5% | -1.5% | +4.5% | +3.1% | +6.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $342K | $339K | $333K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $550K | $599K | $660K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$342K to $550K
46.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$333K to $660K
67.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort George · 10040 · (Tract 279) | $423K | $489K | +15.7% | |
| Harlem | $428K | $469K | +9.7% | |
| East Harlem | $448K | $479K | +6.8% | |
| Hamilton Heights | $395K | $433K | +9.8% | |
| Times Square | $462K | $513K | +11.1% | |
| Upper East Side | $387K | $462K | +19.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort George · 10040 · (Tract 279) | $423K | $489K | +15.7% | |
| Hamilton Heights | $1.03M | $1.27M | +24.0% | |
| Midtown East | $728K | $896K | +23.1% | |
| Upper West Side | $2.01M | $2.43M | +21.0% | |
| Gramercy | $1.11M | $1.33M | +20.4% | |
| West Village | $1.43M | $1.71M | +19.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort George · 10040 · (Tract 279) | $423K | $489K | $328K | |
| Upper West Side | $101K | $110K | $47K | |
| Chelsea | $140K | $155K | $68K | |
| Fort George | $113K | $125K | $72K | |
| Times Square | $462K | $513K | $218K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.