Herkimer, NY · ZIP 13338 · Census Tract 36043011502 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$356K
Downside (P10)
$276K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$382K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$513K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +44%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Herkimer markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $289K | $234K | $224K | $218K | $221K | $205K | $240K | $318K | $313K | $331K | $356K | $359K | $372K | $382K | $347K |
| YoY Change | -19.1% | -4.1% | -3.0% | +1.4% | -7.3% | +17.3% | +32.6% | -1.5% | +5.6% | +7.5% | +1.0% | +3.4% | +2.9% | -9.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $290K | $301K | $276K | $307K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $431K | $486K | $513K | $393K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$290K to $431K
39.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$307K to $393K
24.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Webb | $339K | $382K | +12.7% | |
| Russia | $250K | $269K | +7.7% | |
| Ohio area | $214K | $250K | +16.7% | |
| Frankfort | $197K | $213K | +8.1% | |
| Fairfield area | $187K | $198K | +5.7% | |
| German Flatts | $186K | $210K | +12.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Webb | $339K | $382K | +12.7% | |
| Ohio area | $214K | $250K | +16.7% | |
| Columbia area | $172K | $200K | +15.7% | |
| Herkimer | $166K | $192K | +15.3% | |
| German Flatts | $186K | $210K | +12.6% | |
| Herkimer | $98K | $110K | +11.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Webb | $339K | $382K | $238K | |
| Schuyler | $117K | $124K | $44K | |
| Dolgeville | $113K | $116K | $46K | |
| German Flatts | $83K | $91K | $51K | |
| Little Falls area | $96K | $105K | $58K | |
| Salisbury | $124K | $135K | $60K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.