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Erie, NY · ZIP 14127 · Census Tract 36029013600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$421K
Downside (P10)
$376K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$466K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$603K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $215K | $223K | $220K | $234K | $243K | $258K | $281K | $327K | $371K | $407K | $421K | $420K | $446K | $466K |
| YoY Change | +3.9% | -1.3% | +6.2% | +3.9% | +6.1% | +8.9% | +16.5% | +13.4% | +9.7% | +3.5% | -0.2% | +6.3% | +4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $365K | $376K | $376K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $514K | $557K | $603K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$365K to $514K
35.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$376K to $603K
48.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orchard Park | $415K | $466K | +12.3% | |
| Amherst (Tract 009010) | $432K | $500K | +15.7% | |
| Clarence | $418K | $476K | +14.0% | |
| Lancaster | $419K | $474K | +13.0% | |
| Amherst (Tract 009602) | $415K | $453K | +9.2% | |
| Buffalo | $415K | $443K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orchard Park | $415K | $466K | +12.3% | |
| Amherst | $387K | $466K | +20.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002502) | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Angola | $169K | $201K | +19.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007104) | $118K | $140K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orchard Park | $415K | $466K | $227K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004402) | $68K | $74K | $41K | |
| Lackawanna | $81K | $80K | $39K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 017000) | $70K | $77K | $36K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.