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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Erie, NY · ZIP 14072 · Census Tract 36029007304 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$406K
Downside (P10)
$304K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$405K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$580K
+43% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $220K | $225K | $240K | $239K | $265K | $268K | $275K | $331K | $393K | $399K | $406K | $416K | $411K | $405K |
| YoY Change | +2.5% | +6.4% | -0.1% | +10.7% | +1.3% | +2.3% | +20.4% | +19.0% | +1.4% | +1.9% | +2.3% | -1.2% | -1.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $328K | $320K | $304K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $500K | $562K | $580K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$328K to $500K
41.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$304K to $580K
68.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Island | $398K | $405K | +1.7% | |
| Orchard Park | $409K | $471K | +15.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 006802) | $408K | $459K | +12.4% | |
| Clarence | $406K | $449K | +10.7% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 005400) | $401K | $438K | +9.2% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007102) | $403K | $439K | +8.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Island | $398K | $405K | +1.7% | |
| Amherst | $387K | $466K | +20.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002502) | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Angola | $169K | $201K | +19.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007104) | $118K | $140K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Island | $398K | $405K | $276K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004402) | $68K | $74K | $41K | |
| Lackawanna | $81K | $80K | $39K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 017000) | $70K | $77K | $36K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.