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Erie, NY · ZIP 14111 · Census Tract 36029015700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$232K
Downside (P10)
$190K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$236K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$289K
+24% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +24%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $118K | $120K | $126K | $129K | $138K | $153K | $152K | $168K | $192K | $223K | $232K | $233K | $240K | $236K | $231K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$113,859 | -$112,259 | -$106,559 | -$102,859 | -$94,059 | -$79,159 | -$80,359 | -$64,559 | -$40,759 | -$9,759 | +$426 | +$7,733 | +$4,177 | -$1,494 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.0% | -48.3% | -45.9% | -44.3% | -40.5% | -34.1% | -34.6% | -27.8% | -17.5% | -4.2% | +0.2% | +3.3% | +1.8% | -0.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $199K | $202K | $190K | $203K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $259K | $275K | $289K | $263K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$199K to $259K
25.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$203K to $263K
26.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | $240K | $266K | +10.9% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 008001) | $228K | $246K | +8.1% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 007905) | $236K | $252K | +6.9% | |
| Amherst | $229K | $245K | +6.8% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 008002) | $230K | $239K | +3.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amherst | $387K | $466K | +20.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002502) | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007104) | $118K | $140K | +18.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004002) | $169K | $198K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo (Tract 002801) | $62K | $65K | $44K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004200) | $90K | $104K | $44K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004402) | $68K | $74K | $41K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Erie, NY · ZIP 14111 · Census Tract 36029015700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$232K
Downside (P10)
$190K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$236K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$289K
+24% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +24%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $118K | $120K | $126K | $129K | $138K | $153K | $152K | $168K | $192K | $223K | $232K | $233K | $240K | $236K | $231K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$113,859 | -$112,259 | -$106,559 | -$102,859 | -$94,059 | -$79,159 | -$80,359 | -$64,559 | -$40,759 | -$9,759 | +$426 | +$7,733 | +$4,177 | -$1,494 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.0% | -48.3% | -45.9% | -44.3% | -40.5% | -34.1% | -34.6% | -27.8% | -17.5% | -4.2% | +0.2% | +3.3% | +1.8% | -0.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $199K | $202K | $190K | $203K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $259K | $275K | $289K | $263K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$199K to $259K
25.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$203K to $263K
26.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | $240K | $266K | +10.9% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 008001) | $228K | $246K | +8.1% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 007905) | $236K | $252K | +6.9% | |
| Amherst | $229K | $245K | +6.8% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 008002) | $230K | $239K | +3.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amherst | $387K | $466K | +20.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002502) | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007104) | $118K | $140K | +18.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004002) | $169K | $198K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo (Tract 002801) | $62K | $65K | $44K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004200) | $90K | $104K | $44K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004402) | $68K | $74K | $41K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
