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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Erie, NY · ZIP 14214 · Census Tract 36029004601 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$219K
Downside (P10)
$180K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$240K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$309K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $112K | $109K | $117K | $128K | $160K | $147K | $150K | $176K | $192K | $210K | $219K | $225K | $232K | $240K |
| YoY Change | -3.0% | +7.9% | +9.2% | +24.8% | -7.9% | +1.9% | +17.1% | +9.0% | +9.8% | +4.0% | +2.7% | +3.5% | +3.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $190K | $189K | $180K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $263K | $302K | $309K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$190K to $263K
32.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$180K to $309K
53.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14214 · (Tract 46.1) | $212K | $240K | +13.1% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 007904) | $220K | $249K | +13.2% | |
| Evans | $219K | $234K | +7.1% | |
| Alden | $217K | $229K | +5.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $220K | $227K | +3.2% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 007902) | $219K | $220K | +0.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14214 · (Tract 46.1) | $212K | $240K | +13.1% | |
| Amherst | $387K | $466K | +20.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002502) | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Angola | $169K | $201K | +19.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007104) | $118K | $140K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14214 · (Tract 46.1) | $212K | $240K | $129K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004402) | $68K | $74K | $41K | |
| Lackawanna | $81K | $80K | $39K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 017000) | $70K | $77K | $36K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.