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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Erie, NY · ZIP 14220 · Census Tract 36029000900 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$194K
Downside (P10)
$164K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$203K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$279K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $86K | $87K | $91K | $93K | $106K | $116K | $125K | $167K | $184K | $188K | $194K | $195K | $202K | $203K |
| YoY Change | +2.1% | +3.8% | +2.6% | +13.8% | +9.3% | +7.9% | +33.5% | +10.3% | +2.5% | +3.1% | +0.8% | +3.3% | +0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $168K | $169K | $164K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $250K | $272K | $279K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$168K to $250K
41.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$164K to $279K
56.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14220 · (Tract 9) | $190K | $203K | +7.1% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010902) | $195K | $217K | +11.5% | |
| Depew (Tract 009702) | $192K | $214K | +11.2% | |
| Depew (Tract 009800) | $194K | $215K | +10.9% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010808) | $196K | $215K | +9.6% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010003) | $197K | $211K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14220 · (Tract 9) | $190K | $203K | +7.1% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010700) | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010807) | $212K | $247K | +16.9% | |
| Hamburg | $244K | $283K | +16.0% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010600) | $175K | $202K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14220 · (Tract 9) | $190K | $203K | $116K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001700) | $94K | $99K | $48K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002704) | $77K | $82K | $46K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002801) | $62K | $65K | $44K | |
| Lackawanna | $81K | $80K | $39K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.