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Erie, NY · ZIP 14004 · Census Tract 36029014901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$223K
Downside (P10)
$181K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$229K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$351K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $126K | $137K | $137K | $138K | $143K | $150K | $156K | $186K | $207K | $214K | $223K | $220K | $231K | $229K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$96,513 | -$86,013 | -$86,113 | -$84,813 | -$80,013 | -$73,213 | -$66,613 | -$37,213 | -$16,213 | -$9,413 | -$3,226 | +$7,986 | +$6,547 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.3% | -38.6% | -38.6% | -38.0% | -35.9% | -32.8% | -29.9% | -16.7% | -7.3% | -4.2% | -1.4% | +3.6% | +2.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $191K | $186K | $181K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $265K | $294K | $351K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$191K to $265K
33.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$181K to $351K
73.8% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Erie, NY · ZIP 14004 · Census Tract 36029014901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$223K
Downside (P10)
$181K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$229K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$351K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $126K | $137K | $137K | $138K | $143K | $150K | $156K | $186K | $207K | $214K | $223K | $220K | $231K | $229K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$96,513 | -$86,013 | -$86,113 | -$84,813 | -$80,013 | -$73,213 | -$66,613 | -$37,213 | -$16,213 | -$9,413 | -$3,226 | +$7,986 | +$6,547 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.3% | -38.6% | -38.6% | -38.0% | -35.9% | -32.8% | -29.9% | -16.7% | -7.3% | -4.2% | -1.4% | +3.6% | +2.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $191K | $186K | $181K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $265K | $294K | $351K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$191K to $265K
33.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$181K to $351K
73.8% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
