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Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12540 · Census Tract 36027180001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$492K
Downside (P10)
$424K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$527K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$700K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $323K | $328K | $336K | $346K | $353K | $364K | $386K | $444K | $468K | $491K | $492K | $494K | $510K | $527K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$169,229 | -$164,229 | -$155,629 | -$146,229 | -$138,629 | -$128,129 | -$106,229 | -$48,229 | -$24,229 | -$1,129 | +$1,557 | +$18,433 | +$34,654 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.4% | -33.4% | -31.6% | -29.7% | -28.2% | -26.0% | -21.6% | -9.8% | -4.9% | -0.2% | +0.3% | +3.7% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $394K | $410K | $424K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $613K | $656K | $700K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$394K to $613K
44.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$424K to $700K
52.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Vale | $493K | $527K | +6.7% | |
| Millbrook | $499K | $570K | +14.2% | |
| East Fishkill (Tract 050204) | $503K | $568K | +12.8% | |
| Rhinebeck | $506K | $543K | +7.4% | |
| East Fishkill (Tract 050203) | $502K | $532K | +6.1% | |
| Pawling | $488K | $515K | +5.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Vale | $493K | $527K | +6.7% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Vale | $493K | $527K | $277K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12540 · Census Tract 36027180001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$492K
Downside (P10)
$424K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$527K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$700K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $323K | $328K | $336K | $346K | $353K | $364K | $386K | $444K | $468K | $491K | $492K | $494K | $510K | $527K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$169,229 | -$164,229 | -$155,629 | -$146,229 | -$138,629 | -$128,129 | -$106,229 | -$48,229 | -$24,229 | -$1,129 | +$1,557 | +$18,433 | +$34,654 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.4% | -33.4% | -31.6% | -29.7% | -28.2% | -26.0% | -21.6% | -9.8% | -4.9% | -0.2% | +0.3% | +3.7% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $394K | $410K | $424K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $613K | $656K | $700K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$394K to $613K
44.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$424K to $700K
52.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Vale | $493K | $527K | +6.7% | |
| Millbrook | $499K | $570K | +14.2% | |
| East Fishkill (Tract 050204) | $503K | $568K | +12.8% | |
| Rhinebeck | $506K | $543K | +7.4% | |
| East Fishkill (Tract 050203) | $502K | $532K | +6.1% | |
| Pawling | $488K | $515K | +5.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Vale | $493K | $527K | +6.7% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Vale | $493K | $527K | $277K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
