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Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12603 · Census Tract 36027410000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$385K
Downside (P10)
$334K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$424K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$535K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $244K | $245K | $248K | $246K | $246K | $258K | $257K | $295K | $323K | $376K | $385K | $393K | $412K | $424K |
| YoY Change | +0.4% | +1.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | +5.0% | -0.4% | +14.7% | +9.5% | +16.6% | +2.3% | +2.0% | +4.8% | +2.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $331K | $335K | $334K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $453K | $486K | $535K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$331K to $453K
31.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$334K to $535K
47.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poughkeepsie | $382K | $424K | +10.8% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poughkeepsie | $382K | $424K | $201K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.