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Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12582 · Census Tract 36027050205 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$469K
Downside (P10)
$391K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$522K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$720K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $354K | $369K | $362K | $358K | $352K | $350K | $362K | $416K | $438K | $452K | $469K | $494K | $510K | $522K |
| YoY Change | +4.3% | -2.1% | -0.9% | -1.7% | -0.6% | +3.4% | +14.9% | +5.4% | +3.1% | +3.9% | +5.3% | +3.3% | +2.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $418K | $409K | $391K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $573K | $661K | $720K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$418K to $573K
31.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$391K to $720K
63.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Fishkill | $459K | $522K | +13.7% | |
| Beacon (Tract 210201) | $466K | $521K | +11.9% | |
| Milan | $466K | $499K | +7.1% | |
| Beekman | $472K | $487K | +3.3% | |
| Beacon (Tract 210301) | $470K | $460K | -2.0% | |
| Red Hook | $468K | $453K | -3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Fishkill | $459K | $522K | +13.7% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Fishkill | $459K | $522K | $329K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.