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Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12501 · Census Tract 36027010000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$322K
Downside (P10)
$257K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$317K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$455K
+41% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $242K | $245K | $248K | $213K | $215K | $253K | $240K | $266K | $283K | $310K | $322K | $323K | $329K | $317K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,487 | -$76,687 | -$74,187 | -$108,287 | -$106,487 | -$69,187 | -$82,087 | -$55,987 | -$39,187 | -$12,187 | +$1,329 | +$7,300 | -$4,802 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.7% | -23.8% | -23.1% | -33.7% | -33.1% | -21.5% | -25.5% | -17.4% | -12.2% | -3.8% | +0.4% | +2.3% | -1.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $267K | $274K | $257K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $377K | $438K | $455K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$267K to $377K
34.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$257K to $455K
62.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amenia | $316K | $317K | +0.3% | |
| Poughkeepsie | $314K | $349K | +11.3% | |
| Hyde Park (Tract 070102) | $328K | $361K | +10.1% | |
| Fishkill | $315K | $347K | +10.0% | |
| Pine Plains | $326K | $345K | +5.8% | |
| Hyde Park (Tract 070201) | $317K | $331K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amenia | $316K | $317K | +0.3% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amenia | $316K | $317K | $198K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12501 · Census Tract 36027010000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$322K
Downside (P10)
$257K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$317K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$455K
+41% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $242K | $245K | $248K | $213K | $215K | $253K | $240K | $266K | $283K | $310K | $322K | $323K | $329K | $317K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,487 | -$76,687 | -$74,187 | -$108,287 | -$106,487 | -$69,187 | -$82,087 | -$55,987 | -$39,187 | -$12,187 | +$1,329 | +$7,300 | -$4,802 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.7% | -23.8% | -23.1% | -33.7% | -33.1% | -21.5% | -25.5% | -17.4% | -12.2% | -3.8% | +0.4% | +2.3% | -1.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $267K | $274K | $257K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $377K | $438K | $455K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$267K to $377K
34.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$257K to $455K
62.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amenia | $316K | $317K | +0.3% | |
| Poughkeepsie | $314K | $349K | +11.3% | |
| Hyde Park (Tract 070102) | $328K | $361K | +10.1% | |
| Fishkill | $315K | $347K | +10.0% | |
| Pine Plains | $326K | $345K | +5.8% | |
| Hyde Park (Tract 070201) | $317K | $331K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amenia | $316K | $317K | +0.3% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amenia | $316K | $317K | $198K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
