Loading forecast data...
Ready to see your forecast?
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Loading forecast data...
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12601 · Census Tract 36027140602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$358K
Downside (P10)
$300K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$376K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$545K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $239K | $235K | $225K | $219K | $217K | $226K | $247K | $289K | $321K | $348K | $358K | $358K | $369K | $376K |
| YoY Change | -1.8% | -4.3% | -2.7% | -0.6% | +4.1% | +9.0% | +17.3% | +11.0% | +8.5% | +2.9% | -0.2% | +3.1% | +2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $308K | $296K | $300K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $477K | $489K | $545K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$308K to $477K
47.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$300K to $545K
64.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poughkeepsie · 12601 · (Tract 1406.2) | $353K | $376K | +6.6% | |
| Wappinger | $363K | $420K | +15.9% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140202) | $349K | $400K | +14.5% | |
| Pleasant Valley | $354K | $398K | +12.5% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140700) | $368K | $410K | +11.5% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220801) | $367K | $396K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poughkeepsie · 12601 · (Tract 1406.2) | $353K | $376K | +6.6% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poughkeepsie · 12601 · (Tract 1406.2) | $353K | $376K | $244K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.