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Brooklyn, NY · ZIP 11221 · Census Tract 36047027700 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.80M
Downside (P10)
$1.56M
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.86M
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.34M
+30% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $651K | $648K | $828K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.9M | $1.9M |
| YoY Change | -0.4% | +27.8% | +21.0% | +10.7% | +9.3% | -1.1% | +32.2% | -12.3% | +26.9% | +1.8% | +2.3% | +1.8% | -0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.6M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$1.57M to $2.14M
31.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.56M to $2.34M
42.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bushwick | $1.80M | $1.86M | +3.0% | |
| Greenpoint | $1.81M | $2.04M | +12.7% | |
| Park Slope | $1.79M | $1.93M | +8.1% | |
| Borough Park (Tract 023800) | $1.77M | $1.90M | +7.4% | |
| Borough Park (Tract 023400) | $1.79M | $1.90M | +6.0% | |
| Ocean Hill | $1.77M | $1.84M | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bushwick | $1.80M | $1.86M | +3.0% | |
| New York | $1.22M | $1.48M | +21.3% | |
| Ocean Hill | $1.06M | $1.28M | +20.8% | |
| Bushwick | $1.55M | $1.85M | +19.5% | |
| Williamsburg | $638K | $761K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bushwick | $1.80M | $1.86M | $779K | |
| Sunset Park | $228K | $256K | $154K | |
| Coney Island | $220K | $239K | $126K | |
| East New York | $118K | $132K | $65K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.