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Brooklyn, NY · ZIP 11203 · Census Tract 36047083400 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$648K
Downside (P10)
$558K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$678K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$859K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $374K | $376K | $386K | $401K | $411K | $464K | $457K | $561K | $576K | $620K | $648K | $659K | $667K | $678K | $644K |
| YoY Change | +0.6% | +2.6% | +3.8% | +2.5% | +12.9% | -1.6% | +22.8% | +2.8% | +7.5% | +4.6% | +1.7% | +1.1% | +1.7% | -5.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $562K | $578K | $558K | $580K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $730K | $790K | $859K | $734K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$562K to $730K
25.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$580K to $734K
23.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Flatbush · 11203 · (Tract 834) | $638K | $678K | +6.2% | |
| Flatbush | $648K | $741K | +14.4% | |
| Brighton Beach | $648K | $733K | +13.1% | |
| Canarsie (Tract 068600) | $648K | $724K | +11.7% | |
| Ocean Hill | $648K | $700K | +7.9% | |
| Canarsie (Tract 072000) | $648K | $676K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Flatbush · 11203 · (Tract 834) | $638K | $678K | +6.2% | |
| New York | $1.22M | $1.48M | +21.3% | |
| Ocean Hill | $1.06M | $1.28M | +20.8% | |
| Bushwick | $1.55M | $1.85M | +19.5% | |
| Williamsburg | $638K | $761K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Flatbush · 11203 · (Tract 834) | $638K | $678K | $301K | |
| Sunset Park | $228K | $256K | $154K | |
| Coney Island | $220K | $239K | $126K | |
| East New York | $118K | $132K | $65K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.