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Las Vegas, NV · ZIP 89123 · Census Tract 32003002834 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$485K
Downside (P10)
$443K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$549K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$675K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $182K | $206K | $223K | $252K | $272K | $286K | $297K | $400K | $416K | $463K | $485K | $496K | $515K | $549K | $486K |
| YoY Change | +13.3% | +8.3% | +13.1% | +8.1% | +5.1% | +3.9% | +34.6% | +4.0% | +11.1% | +4.8% | +2.4% | +3.9% | +6.5% | -11.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $432K | $446K | $443K | $431K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $576K | $632K | $675K | $553K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$432K to $576K
29.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$431K to $553K
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise | $480K | $549K | +14.4% | |
| North Las Vegas | $485K | $562K | +15.8% | |
| Paradise | $486K | $526K | +8.1% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 003204) | $487K | $513K | +5.3% | |
| Winchester | $485K | $510K | +5.3% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 002976) | $486K | $507K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise | $480K | $549K | +14.4% | |
| Winchester | $219K | $268K | +22.2% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002902) | $699K | $852K | +21.9% | |
| Las Vegas | $749K | $910K | +21.5% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002845) | $374K | $453K | +21.1% | |
| North Las Vegas | $390K | $472K | +21.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise | $480K | $549K | $232K | |
| Spring Valley | $98K | $106K | $56K | |
| Paradise | $57K | $64K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.