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Las Vegas, NV · ZIP 89121 · Census Tract 32003001715 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$248K
Downside (P10)
$186K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$258K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$389K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 57% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $103K | $114K | $135K | $157K | $169K | $206K | $201K | $219K | $222K | $242K | $248K | $247K | $253K | $258K |
| YoY Change | +11.3% | +18.4% | +16.0% | +7.8% | +21.5% | -2.4% | +9.0% | +1.4% | +9.0% | +2.7% | -0.6% | +2.4% | +2.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $208K | $189K | $186K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $305K | $336K | $389K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$208K to $305K
39.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$186K to $389K
78.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise | $248K | $258K | +4.3% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 000514) | $243K | $266K | +9.7% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 002206) | $249K | $273K | +9.6% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 000510) | $249K | $271K | +8.8% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 006001) | $244K | $264K | +8.3% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 003004) | $250K | $250K | -0.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise | $248K | $258K | +4.3% | |
| Winchester | $219K | $268K | +22.2% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002902) | $699K | $852K | +21.9% | |
| Las Vegas | $749K | $910K | +21.5% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002845) | $374K | $453K | +21.1% | |
| North Las Vegas | $390K | $472K | +21.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise | $248K | $258K | $203K | |
| Spring Valley | $98K | $106K | $56K | |
| Paradise | $57K | $64K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.