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Douglas, NV · ZIP 89423 · Census Tract 32005001400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$588K
Downside (P10)
$432K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$612K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$873K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $267K | $271K | $292K | $318K | $345K | $381K | $422K | $478K | $525K | $586K | $588K | $609K | $613K | $612K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$320,796 | -$316,796 | -$295,796 | -$270,096 | -$243,296 | -$207,296 | -$166,096 | -$110,296 | -$63,496 | -$1,996 | +$20,598 | +$24,993 | +$23,667 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -54.6% | -53.9% | -50.3% | -45.9% | -41.4% | -35.3% | -28.2% | -18.8% | -10.8% | -0.3% | +3.5% | +4.3% | +4.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $473K | $446K | $432K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $732K | $803K | $873K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$473K to $732K
42.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$432K to $873K
72.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minden | $593K | $612K | +3.1% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001200) | $682K | $752K | +10.3% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002000) | $459K | $498K | +8.7% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | +5.7% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002100) | $541K | $570K | +5.3% | |
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | +4.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minden | $593K | $612K | +3.1% | |
| Pine Nut | $750K | $851K | +13.5% | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | +11.5% | |
| Genoa-Jacks Valley | $1.20M | $1.33M | +10.6% | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | +10.5% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos | $682K | $752K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minden | $593K | $612K | $441K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | $303K | |
| Indian Hills | $459K | $498K | $279K | |
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | $238K | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | $230K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001100) | $448K | $444K | $213K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Douglas, NV · ZIP 89423 · Census Tract 32005001400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$588K
Downside (P10)
$432K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$612K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$873K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $267K | $271K | $292K | $318K | $345K | $381K | $422K | $478K | $525K | $586K | $588K | $609K | $613K | $612K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$320,796 | -$316,796 | -$295,796 | -$270,096 | -$243,296 | -$207,296 | -$166,096 | -$110,296 | -$63,496 | -$1,996 | +$20,598 | +$24,993 | +$23,667 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -54.6% | -53.9% | -50.3% | -45.9% | -41.4% | -35.3% | -28.2% | -18.8% | -10.8% | -0.3% | +3.5% | +4.3% | +4.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $473K | $446K | $432K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $732K | $803K | $873K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$473K to $732K
42.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$432K to $873K
72.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minden | $593K | $612K | +3.1% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001200) | $682K | $752K | +10.3% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002000) | $459K | $498K | +8.7% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | +5.7% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002100) | $541K | $570K | +5.3% | |
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | +4.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minden | $593K | $612K | +3.1% | |
| Pine Nut | $750K | $851K | +13.5% | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | +11.5% | |
| Genoa-Jacks Valley | $1.20M | $1.33M | +10.6% | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | +10.5% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos | $682K | $752K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minden | $593K | $612K | $441K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | $303K | |
| Indian Hills | $459K | $498K | $279K | |
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | $238K | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | $230K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001100) | $448K | $444K | $213K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
