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Douglas, NV · ZIP 89410 · Census Tract 32005001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$495K
Downside (P10)
$421K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$522K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$659K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $222K | $223K | $234K | $251K | $304K | $319K | $342K | $406K | $504K | $487K | $495K | $514K | $529K | $522K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$272,984 | -$271,984 | -$261,184 | -$244,284 | -$190,784 | -$175,384 | -$152,984 | -$89,184 | +$9,416 | -$7,484 | +$19,052 | +$34,544 | +$26,884 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.2% | -55.0% | -52.8% | -49.4% | -38.6% | -35.4% | -30.9% | -18.0% | +1.9% | -1.5% | +3.9% | +7.0% | +5.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $434K | $419K | $421K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $627K | $651K | $659K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$434K to $627K
37.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$421K to $659K
45.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | +4.7% | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | +10.5% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002000) | $459K | $498K | +8.7% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | +5.7% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002100) | $541K | $570K | +5.3% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001100) | $448K | $444K | -1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | +4.7% | |
| Pine Nut | $750K | $851K | +13.5% | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | +11.5% | |
| Genoa-Jacks Valley | $1.20M | $1.33M | +10.6% | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | +10.5% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos | $682K | $752K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | $238K | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | $312K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | $303K | |
| Indian Hills | $459K | $498K | $279K | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | $230K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001100) | $448K | $444K | $213K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Douglas, NV · ZIP 89410 · Census Tract 32005001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$495K
Downside (P10)
$421K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$522K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$659K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $222K | $223K | $234K | $251K | $304K | $319K | $342K | $406K | $504K | $487K | $495K | $514K | $529K | $522K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$272,984 | -$271,984 | -$261,184 | -$244,284 | -$190,784 | -$175,384 | -$152,984 | -$89,184 | +$9,416 | -$7,484 | +$19,052 | +$34,544 | +$26,884 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.2% | -55.0% | -52.8% | -49.4% | -38.6% | -35.4% | -30.9% | -18.0% | +1.9% | -1.5% | +3.9% | +7.0% | +5.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $434K | $419K | $421K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $627K | $651K | $659K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$434K to $627K
37.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$421K to $659K
45.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | +4.7% | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | +10.5% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002000) | $459K | $498K | +8.7% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | +5.7% | |
| Indian Hills (Tract 002100) | $541K | $570K | +5.3% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001100) | $448K | $444K | -1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | +4.7% | |
| Pine Nut | $750K | $851K | +13.5% | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | +11.5% | |
| Genoa-Jacks Valley | $1.20M | $1.33M | +10.6% | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | +10.5% | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos | $682K | $752K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | $238K | |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | $312K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001000) | $504K | $532K | $303K | |
| Indian Hills | $459K | $498K | $279K | |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | $230K | |
| Gardnerville Ranchos (Tract 001100) | $448K | $444K | $213K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
