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Valencia, NM · ZIP 87002 · Census Tract 35061970800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$208K
Downside (P10)
$171K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$211K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$298K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $110K | $114K | $104K | $128K | $134K | $160K | $152K | $166K | $181K | $199K | $208K | $205K | $206K | $211K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$97,700 | -$94,500 | -$104,100 | -$79,800 | -$74,100 | -$48,400 | -$55,800 | -$42,000 | -$27,600 | -$9,100 | -$2,875 | -$1,877 | +$3,103 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -46.9% | -45.4% | -50.0% | -38.3% | -35.6% | -23.3% | -26.8% | -20.2% | -13.3% | -4.4% | -1.4% | -0.9% | +1.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $177K | $170K | $171K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $247K | $279K | $298K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$177K to $247K
33.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$171K to $298K
60.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belen · 87002 · (Tract 9708) | $205K | $211K | +3.0% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970306) | $232K | $266K | +14.4% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970401) | $221K | $242K | +9.4% | |
| Belen (Tract 971000) | $211K | $228K | +8.2% | |
| Belen (Tract 970902) | $207K | $223K | +7.7% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970302) | $191K | $199K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belen · 87002 · (Tract 9708) | $205K | $211K | +3.0% | |
| Belen | $117K | $136K | +16.9% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970306) | $232K | $266K | +14.4% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970307) | $89K | $102K | +14.1% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970405) | $279K | $317K | +13.9% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970305) | $234K | $266K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belen · 87002 · (Tract 9708) | $205K | $211K | $127K | |
| Belen (Tract 971301) | $134K | $145K | $68K | |
| Belen (Tract 970901) | $117K | $136K | $64K | |
| Belen (Tract 971100) | $89K | $91K | $52K | |
| Los Lunas | $79K | $85K | $49K | |
| Meadow Lake | $78K | $83K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Valencia, NM · ZIP 87002 · Census Tract 35061970800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$208K
Downside (P10)
$171K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$211K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$298K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $110K | $114K | $104K | $128K | $134K | $160K | $152K | $166K | $181K | $199K | $208K | $205K | $206K | $211K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$97,700 | -$94,500 | -$104,100 | -$79,800 | -$74,100 | -$48,400 | -$55,800 | -$42,000 | -$27,600 | -$9,100 | -$2,875 | -$1,877 | +$3,103 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -46.9% | -45.4% | -50.0% | -38.3% | -35.6% | -23.3% | -26.8% | -20.2% | -13.3% | -4.4% | -1.4% | -0.9% | +1.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $177K | $170K | $171K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $247K | $279K | $298K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$177K to $247K
33.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$171K to $298K
60.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belen · 87002 · (Tract 9708) | $205K | $211K | +3.0% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970306) | $232K | $266K | +14.4% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970401) | $221K | $242K | +9.4% | |
| Belen (Tract 971000) | $211K | $228K | +8.2% | |
| Belen (Tract 970902) | $207K | $223K | +7.7% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970302) | $191K | $199K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belen · 87002 · (Tract 9708) | $205K | $211K | +3.0% | |
| Belen | $117K | $136K | +16.9% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970306) | $232K | $266K | +14.4% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970307) | $89K | $102K | +14.1% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970405) | $279K | $317K | +13.9% | |
| Los Lunas (Tract 970305) | $234K | $266K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belen · 87002 · (Tract 9708) | $205K | $211K | $127K | |
| Belen (Tract 971301) | $134K | $145K | $68K | |
| Belen (Tract 970901) | $117K | $136K | $64K | |
| Belen (Tract 971100) | $89K | $91K | $52K | |
| Los Lunas | $79K | $85K | $49K | |
| Meadow Lake | $78K | $83K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
