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Doña Ana, NM · ZIP 88044 · Census Tract 35013001701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$248K
Downside (P10)
$218K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$284K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$402K
+62% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $166K | $179K | $185K | $190K | $192K | $197K | $224K | $229K | $238K | $248K | $256K | $268K | $284K | $249K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$86,962 | -$82,062 | -$68,962 | -$63,262 | -$58,662 | -$56,562 | -$51,362 | -$24,062 | -$19,762 | -$10,762 | +$8,123 | +$19,494 | +$35,278 | +$604 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.0% | -33.1% | -27.8% | -25.5% | -23.6% | -22.8% | -20.7% | -9.7% | -8.0% | -4.3% | +3.3% | +7.9% | +14.2% | +0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $212K | $213K | $218K | $224K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $317K | $359K | $402K | $278K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$212K to $317K
41.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$224K to $278K
22.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Doña Ana · La Mesa · (Tract 17.1) | $244K | $284K | +16.0% | |
| Doña Ana-Hill | $239K | $280K | +17.1% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001310) | $242K | $270K | +11.6% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 000104) | $253K | $277K | +9.5% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 000203) | $233K | $254K | +9.0% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001103) | $248K | $264K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Doña Ana · La Mesa · (Tract 17.1) | $244K | $284K | +16.0% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001106) | $316K | $380K | +20.1% | |
| Doña Ana-Hill | $239K | $280K | +17.1% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001203) | $276K | $323K | +16.9% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001209) | $343K | $400K | +16.6% | |
| South Doña Ana | $228K | $265K | +16.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Doña Ana · La Mesa · (Tract 17.1) | $244K | $284K | $184K | |
| Sunland Park | $110K | $124K | $62K | |
| Anthony (Tract 001807) | $101K | $114K | $59K | |
| Anthony (Tract 001814) | $101K | $106K | $56K | |
| Hatch | $97K | $110K | $55K | |
| Chaparral | $90K | $92K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Doña Ana, NM · ZIP 88044 · Census Tract 35013001701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$248K
Downside (P10)
$218K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$284K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$402K
+62% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $166K | $179K | $185K | $190K | $192K | $197K | $224K | $229K | $238K | $248K | $256K | $268K | $284K | $249K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$86,962 | -$82,062 | -$68,962 | -$63,262 | -$58,662 | -$56,562 | -$51,362 | -$24,062 | -$19,762 | -$10,762 | +$8,123 | +$19,494 | +$35,278 | +$604 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.0% | -33.1% | -27.8% | -25.5% | -23.6% | -22.8% | -20.7% | -9.7% | -8.0% | -4.3% | +3.3% | +7.9% | +14.2% | +0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $212K | $213K | $218K | $224K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $317K | $359K | $402K | $278K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$212K to $317K
41.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$224K to $278K
22.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Doña Ana · La Mesa · (Tract 17.1) | $244K | $284K | +16.0% | |
| Doña Ana-Hill | $239K | $280K | +17.1% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001310) | $242K | $270K | +11.6% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 000104) | $253K | $277K | +9.5% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 000203) | $233K | $254K | +9.0% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001103) | $248K | $264K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Doña Ana · La Mesa · (Tract 17.1) | $244K | $284K | +16.0% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001106) | $316K | $380K | +20.1% | |
| Doña Ana-Hill | $239K | $280K | +17.1% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001203) | $276K | $323K | +16.9% | |
| Las Cruces (Tract 001209) | $343K | $400K | +16.6% | |
| South Doña Ana | $228K | $265K | +16.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Doña Ana · La Mesa · (Tract 17.1) | $244K | $284K | $184K | |
| Sunland Park | $110K | $124K | $62K | |
| Anthony (Tract 001807) | $101K | $114K | $59K | |
| Anthony (Tract 001814) | $101K | $106K | $56K | |
| Hatch | $97K | $110K | $55K | |
| Chaparral | $90K | $92K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
