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McHenry, ND · Census Tract 38049920003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$438K
Downside (P10)
$301K
-31% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$511K
+17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$827K
+89% by 2030
Base case: +17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -31% to +89%. The model forecasts this with 43% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $438K | $459K | $461K | $485K | $511K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$21,275 | +$23,846 | +$47,893 | +$73,878 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +4.9% | +5.4% | +10.9% | +16.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $312K | $295K | $285K | $301K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $628K | $713K | $727K | $827K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. This usually reflects sparse local support, noisier history, or faster structural change.
Near-term band
$312K to $628K
68.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$301K to $827K
102.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920003 | $438K | $511K | +16.9% | |
| McHenry (Tract 840002) | $484K | $651K | +34.5% | |
| McHenry (Tract 680000) | $339K | $424K | +25.3% | |
| McHenry (Tract 240000) | $396K | $463K | +16.9% | |
| Near Wagar | $131K | $139K | +6.4% | |
| Near Odin | $179K | $182K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920003 | $438K | $511K | +16.9% | |
| McHenry (Tract 840002) | $484K | $651K | +34.5% | |
| McHenry (Tract 680000) | $339K | $424K | +25.3% | |
| McHenry (Tract 240000) | $396K | $463K | +16.9% | |
| McHenry (Tract 400002) | $846K | $959K | +13.4% | |
| Near Wagar | $131K | $139K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920003 | $438K | $511K | $526K | |
| McHenry (Tract 400002) | $846K | $959K | $687K | |
| McHenry (Tract 840002) | $484K | $651K | $490K | |
| McHenry (Tract 680000) | $339K | $424K | $421K | |
| Near Odin | $179K | $182K | $84K | |
| Near Wagar | $131K | $139K | $79K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
McHenry, ND · Census Tract 38049920003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$438K
Downside (P10)
$301K
-31% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$511K
+17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$827K
+89% by 2030
Base case: +17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -31% to +89%. The model forecasts this with 43% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $438K | $459K | $461K | $485K | $511K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$21,275 | +$23,846 | +$47,893 | +$73,878 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +4.9% | +5.4% | +10.9% | +16.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $312K | $295K | $285K | $301K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $628K | $713K | $727K | $827K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. This usually reflects sparse local support, noisier history, or faster structural change.
Near-term band
$312K to $628K
68.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$301K to $827K
102.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920003 | $438K | $511K | +16.9% | |
| McHenry (Tract 840002) | $484K | $651K | +34.5% | |
| McHenry (Tract 680000) | $339K | $424K | +25.3% | |
| McHenry (Tract 240000) | $396K | $463K | +16.9% | |
| Near Wagar | $131K | $139K | +6.4% | |
| Near Odin | $179K | $182K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920003 | $438K | $511K | +16.9% | |
| McHenry (Tract 840002) | $484K | $651K | +34.5% | |
| McHenry (Tract 680000) | $339K | $424K | +25.3% | |
| McHenry (Tract 240000) | $396K | $463K | +16.9% | |
| McHenry (Tract 400002) | $846K | $959K | +13.4% | |
| Near Wagar | $131K | $139K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920003 | $438K | $511K | $526K | |
| McHenry (Tract 400002) | $846K | $959K | $687K | |
| McHenry (Tract 840002) | $484K | $651K | $490K | |
| McHenry (Tract 680000) | $339K | $424K | $421K | |
| Near Odin | $179K | $182K | $84K | |
| Near Wagar | $131K | $139K | $79K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
