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Watauga, NC · ZIP 28618 · Census Tract 37189920701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$364K
Downside (P10)
$303K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$398K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$516K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $260K | $230K | $238K | $216K | $204K | $215K | $218K | $260K | $289K | $347K | $364K | $368K | $393K | $398K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,759 | -$134,359 | -$126,159 | -$147,459 | -$159,959 | -$148,959 | -$146,059 | -$104,059 | -$74,859 | -$17,159 | +$4,194 | +$28,644 | +$33,782 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.5% | -36.9% | -34.7% | -40.5% | -44.0% | -40.9% | -40.1% | -28.6% | -20.6% | -4.7% | +1.2% | +7.9% | +9.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $321K | $310K | $303K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $467K | $495K | $516K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$321K to $467K
39.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$303K to $516K
53.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Fork | $358K | $398K | +11.1% | |
| New River area (Tract 920703) | $403K | $457K | +13.6% | |
| Boone | $348K | $392K | +12.7% | |
| New River area (Tract 920400) | $386K | $424K | +9.9% | |
| Watauga area | $364K | $390K | +7.2% | |
| Shawneehaw area | $358K | $366K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Fork | $358K | $398K | +11.1% | |
| Boone (Tract 920500) | $446K | $528K | +18.6% | |
| New River area (Tract 920703) | $403K | $457K | +13.6% | |
| New River area (Tract 920602) | $562K | $637K | +13.4% | |
| Boone (Tract 920601) | $348K | $392K | +12.7% | |
| Elk area | $405K | $448K | +10.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Fork | $358K | $398K | $212K | |
| Boone | $348K | $392K | $201K | |
| Shawneehaw area | $358K | $366K | $182K | |
| Beaverdam area | $264K | $274K | $177K | |
| Watauga area | $364K | $390K | $160K | |
| Meat Camp area | $208K | $223K | $130K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Watauga, NC · ZIP 28618 · Census Tract 37189920701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$364K
Downside (P10)
$303K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$398K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$516K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $260K | $230K | $238K | $216K | $204K | $215K | $218K | $260K | $289K | $347K | $364K | $368K | $393K | $398K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,759 | -$134,359 | -$126,159 | -$147,459 | -$159,959 | -$148,959 | -$146,059 | -$104,059 | -$74,859 | -$17,159 | +$4,194 | +$28,644 | +$33,782 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.5% | -36.9% | -34.7% | -40.5% | -44.0% | -40.9% | -40.1% | -28.6% | -20.6% | -4.7% | +1.2% | +7.9% | +9.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $321K | $310K | $303K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $467K | $495K | $516K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$321K to $467K
39.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$303K to $516K
53.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Fork | $358K | $398K | +11.1% | |
| New River area (Tract 920703) | $403K | $457K | +13.6% | |
| Boone | $348K | $392K | +12.7% | |
| New River area (Tract 920400) | $386K | $424K | +9.9% | |
| Watauga area | $364K | $390K | +7.2% | |
| Shawneehaw area | $358K | $366K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Fork | $358K | $398K | +11.1% | |
| Boone (Tract 920500) | $446K | $528K | +18.6% | |
| New River area (Tract 920703) | $403K | $457K | +13.6% | |
| New River area (Tract 920602) | $562K | $637K | +13.4% | |
| Boone (Tract 920601) | $348K | $392K | +12.7% | |
| Elk area | $405K | $448K | +10.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Fork | $358K | $398K | $212K | |
| Boone | $348K | $392K | $201K | |
| Shawneehaw area | $358K | $366K | $182K | |
| Beaverdam area | $264K | $274K | $177K | |
| Watauga area | $364K | $390K | $160K | |
| Meat Camp area | $208K | $223K | $130K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
