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Vance, NC · ZIP 27537 · Census Tract 37181960300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$241K
Downside (P10)
$197K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$260K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$369K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $125K | $129K | $120K | $132K | $139K | $154K | $174K | $204K | $192K | $233K | $241K | $248K | $258K | $260K | $242K |
| YoY Change | +2.9% | -6.9% | +10.2% | +5.3% | +10.9% | +12.7% | +17.5% | -5.8% | +21.5% | +3.3% | +2.8% | +4.3% | +0.6% | -6.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $212K | $202K | $197K | $217K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $304K | $321K | $369K | $276K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$212K to $304K
37.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$217K to $276K
24.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabney area | $238K | $260K | +9.0% | |
| Middleburg | $210K | $234K | +11.5% | |
| Townsville area | $142K | $157K | +10.3% | |
| Henderson | $221K | $243K | +10.2% | |
| Kittrell | $174K | $190K | +9.2% | |
| Sandy Creek | $152K | $165K | +8.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabney area | $238K | $260K | +9.0% | |
| Sandy Creek | $113K | $128K | +12.8% | |
| Middleburg | $210K | $234K | +11.5% | |
| Henderson (Tract 960600) | $119K | $132K | +11.1% | |
| Townsville area | $142K | $157K | +10.3% | |
| Henderson (Tract 960400) | $221K | $243K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabney area | $238K | $260K | $172K | |
| Henderson (Tract 960500) | $124K | $132K | $67K | |
| Henderson (Tract 960700) | $77K | $81K | $60K | |
| Sandy Creek (Tract 960901) | $113K | $128K | $58K | |
| Sandy Creek (Tract 960903) | $81K | $85K | $50K | |
| Henderson (Tract 960800) | $79K | $82K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.