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Union, NC · ZIP 28173 · Census Tract 37179021013 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$488K
Downside (P10)
$423K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$549K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$707K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $189K | $199K | $209K | $239K | $256K | $270K | $295K | $384K | $419K | $482K | $488K | $502K | $525K | $549K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$299,628 | -$288,928 | -$279,328 | -$249,128 | -$231,928 | -$218,528 | -$193,628 | -$104,028 | -$69,328 | -$6,528 | +$13,779 | +$36,391 | +$60,427 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.4% | -59.2% | -57.2% | -51.0% | -47.5% | -44.8% | -39.7% | -21.3% | -14.2% | -1.3% | +2.8% | +7.5% | +12.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $436K | $419K | $423K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $628K | $628K | $707K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$436K to $628K
38.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$423K to $707K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waxhaw | $492K | $549K | +11.6% | |
| Goose Creek (Tract 020205) | $435K | $513K | +18.1% | |
| Vance (Tract 020317) | $433K | $484K | +11.5% | |
| Vance (Tract 020310) | $512K | $568K | +10.8% | |
| Goose Creek (Tract 020203) | $507K | $557K | +9.8% | |
| Vance (Tract 020315) | $495K | $534K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waxhaw | $492K | $549K | +11.6% | |
| Sandy Ridge | $776K | $944K | +21.6% | |
| Monroe | $300K | $358K | +19.2% | |
| Goose Creek | $435K | $513K | +18.1% | |
| Jackson | $387K | $453K | +17.0% | |
| Vance | $309K | $355K | +14.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waxhaw | $492K | $549K | $283K | |
| Monroe (Tract 020701) | $230K | $244K | $140K | |
| Monroe (Tract 020405) | $232K | $249K | $135K | |
| Monroe area | $250K | $258K | $118K | |
| Monroe (Tract 020406) | $201K | $206K | $114K | |
| Marshville | $208K | $228K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Union, NC · ZIP 28173 · Census Tract 37179021013 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$488K
Downside (P10)
$423K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$549K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$707K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $189K | $199K | $209K | $239K | $256K | $270K | $295K | $384K | $419K | $482K | $488K | $502K | $525K | $549K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$299,628 | -$288,928 | -$279,328 | -$249,128 | -$231,928 | -$218,528 | -$193,628 | -$104,028 | -$69,328 | -$6,528 | +$13,779 | +$36,391 | +$60,427 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.4% | -59.2% | -57.2% | -51.0% | -47.5% | -44.8% | -39.7% | -21.3% | -14.2% | -1.3% | +2.8% | +7.5% | +12.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $436K | $419K | $423K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $628K | $628K | $707K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$436K to $628K
38.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$423K to $707K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waxhaw | $492K | $549K | +11.6% | |
| Goose Creek (Tract 020205) | $435K | $513K | +18.1% | |
| Vance (Tract 020317) | $433K | $484K | +11.5% | |
| Vance (Tract 020310) | $512K | $568K | +10.8% | |
| Goose Creek (Tract 020203) | $507K | $557K | +9.8% | |
| Vance (Tract 020315) | $495K | $534K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waxhaw | $492K | $549K | +11.6% | |
| Sandy Ridge | $776K | $944K | +21.6% | |
| Monroe | $300K | $358K | +19.2% | |
| Goose Creek | $435K | $513K | +18.1% | |
| Jackson | $387K | $453K | +17.0% | |
| Vance | $309K | $355K | +14.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waxhaw | $492K | $549K | $283K | |
| Monroe (Tract 020701) | $230K | $244K | $140K | |
| Monroe (Tract 020405) | $232K | $249K | $135K | |
| Monroe area | $250K | $258K | $118K | |
| Monroe (Tract 020406) | $201K | $206K | $114K | |
| Marshville | $208K | $228K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
