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Raleigh, NC · ZIP 27539 · Census Tract 37183053111 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$495K
Downside (P10)
$406K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$573K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$769K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $195K | $210K | $217K | $228K | $239K | $243K | $309K | $382K | $414K | $502K | $495K | $512K | $529K | $573K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$300,249 | -$284,449 | -$277,549 | -$266,949 | -$255,949 | -$251,549 | -$186,349 | -$113,349 | -$80,849 | +$7,051 | +$17,460 | +$34,301 | +$77,773 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.7% | -57.5% | -56.1% | -53.9% | -51.7% | -50.8% | -37.7% | -22.9% | -16.3% | +1.4% | +3.5% | +6.9% | +15.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $416K | $396K | $406K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $652K | $707K | $769K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$416K to $652K
46.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$406K to $769K
63.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Creek area | $501K | $573K | +14.4% | |
| Cedar Fork (Tract 053615) | $492K | $565K | +14.9% | |
| Holly Springs | $491K | $546K | +11.1% | |
| Cedar Fork (Tract 053608) | $495K | $526K | +6.3% | |
| Cedar Fork (Tract 053609) | $500K | $522K | +4.3% | |
| Cary | $494K | $479K | -3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Creek area | $501K | $573K | +14.4% | |
| Raleigh (Tract 050700) | $462K | $560K | +21.1% | |
| White Oak | $528K | $639K | +21.0% | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052507) | $510K | $616K | +20.8% | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052101) | $230K | $274K | +19.3% | |
| Holly Springs | $501K | $596K | +19.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Creek area | $501K | $573K | $363K | |
| St. Marys | $254K | $290K | $141K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052101) | $230K | $274K | $136K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052811) | $239K | $260K | $133K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052002) | $245K | $272K | $132K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052704) | $197K | $229K | $130K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Raleigh, NC · ZIP 27539 · Census Tract 37183053111 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$495K
Downside (P10)
$406K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$573K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$769K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $195K | $210K | $217K | $228K | $239K | $243K | $309K | $382K | $414K | $502K | $495K | $512K | $529K | $573K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$300,249 | -$284,449 | -$277,549 | -$266,949 | -$255,949 | -$251,549 | -$186,349 | -$113,349 | -$80,849 | +$7,051 | +$17,460 | +$34,301 | +$77,773 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.7% | -57.5% | -56.1% | -53.9% | -51.7% | -50.8% | -37.7% | -22.9% | -16.3% | +1.4% | +3.5% | +6.9% | +15.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $416K | $396K | $406K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $652K | $707K | $769K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$416K to $652K
46.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$406K to $769K
63.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Creek area | $501K | $573K | +14.4% | |
| Cedar Fork (Tract 053615) | $492K | $565K | +14.9% | |
| Holly Springs | $491K | $546K | +11.1% | |
| Cedar Fork (Tract 053608) | $495K | $526K | +6.3% | |
| Cedar Fork (Tract 053609) | $500K | $522K | +4.3% | |
| Cary | $494K | $479K | -3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Creek area | $501K | $573K | +14.4% | |
| Raleigh (Tract 050700) | $462K | $560K | +21.1% | |
| White Oak | $528K | $639K | +21.0% | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052507) | $510K | $616K | +20.8% | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052101) | $230K | $274K | +19.3% | |
| Holly Springs | $501K | $596K | +19.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Creek area | $501K | $573K | $363K | |
| St. Marys | $254K | $290K | $141K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052101) | $230K | $274K | $136K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052811) | $239K | $260K | $133K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052002) | $245K | $272K | $132K | |
| Raleigh (Tract 052704) | $197K | $229K | $130K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
