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Pender, NC · ZIP 28457 · Census Tract 37141920601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$191K
Downside (P10)
$164K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$213K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$298K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $131K | $129K | $145K | $143K | $153K | $139K | $154K | $158K | $148K | $185K | $191K | $196K | $197K | $213K | $193K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$60,032 | -$62,232 | -$46,532 | -$47,932 | -$38,032 | -$52,832 | -$37,332 | -$32,932 | -$42,932 | -$5,932 | +$4,181 | +$5,462 | +$21,403 | +$1,265 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.4% | -32.5% | -24.3% | -25.1% | -19.9% | -27.6% | -19.5% | -17.2% | -22.4% | -3.1% | +2.2% | +2.9% | +11.2% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $171K | $174K | $164K | $170K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $242K | $255K | $298K | $220K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$171K to $242K
36.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$170K to $220K
26.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Creek area | $189K | $213K | +12.7% | |
| Union | $178K | $199K | +12.0% | |
| Burgaw (Tract 920403) | $211K | $229K | +8.4% | |
| Burgaw (Tract 920402) | $229K | $241K | +5.3% | |
| Canetuck area | $167K | $174K | +4.6% | |
| Holly | $193K | $200K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Creek area | $189K | $213K | +12.7% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920203) | $362K | $422K | +16.6% | |
| Union | $178K | $199K | +12.0% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920105) | $318K | $350K | +10.1% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920106) | $691K | $755K | +9.3% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920201) | $387K | $422K | +9.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Creek area | $189K | $213K | $134K | |
| Burgaw | $211K | $229K | $117K | |
| Union | $178K | $199K | $105K | |
| Holly | $193K | $200K | $102K | |
| Canetuck area | $167K | $174K | $85K | |
| Columbia area | $119K | $129K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pender, NC · ZIP 28457 · Census Tract 37141920601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$191K
Downside (P10)
$164K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$213K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$298K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $131K | $129K | $145K | $143K | $153K | $139K | $154K | $158K | $148K | $185K | $191K | $196K | $197K | $213K | $193K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$60,032 | -$62,232 | -$46,532 | -$47,932 | -$38,032 | -$52,832 | -$37,332 | -$32,932 | -$42,932 | -$5,932 | +$4,181 | +$5,462 | +$21,403 | +$1,265 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.4% | -32.5% | -24.3% | -25.1% | -19.9% | -27.6% | -19.5% | -17.2% | -22.4% | -3.1% | +2.2% | +2.9% | +11.2% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $171K | $174K | $164K | $170K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $242K | $255K | $298K | $220K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$171K to $242K
36.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$170K to $220K
26.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Creek area | $189K | $213K | +12.7% | |
| Union | $178K | $199K | +12.0% | |
| Burgaw (Tract 920403) | $211K | $229K | +8.4% | |
| Burgaw (Tract 920402) | $229K | $241K | +5.3% | |
| Canetuck area | $167K | $174K | +4.6% | |
| Holly | $193K | $200K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Creek area | $189K | $213K | +12.7% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920203) | $362K | $422K | +16.6% | |
| Union | $178K | $199K | +12.0% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920105) | $318K | $350K | +10.1% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920106) | $691K | $755K | +9.3% | |
| Topsail (Tract 920201) | $387K | $422K | +9.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Creek area | $189K | $213K | $134K | |
| Burgaw | $211K | $229K | $117K | |
| Union | $178K | $199K | $105K | |
| Holly | $193K | $200K | $102K | |
| Canetuck area | $167K | $174K | $85K | |
| Columbia area | $119K | $129K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
