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New Hanover, NC · ZIP 28409 · Census Tract 37129012004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$498K
Downside (P10)
$375K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$505K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$764K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $291K | $285K | $300K | $318K | $321K | $338K | $370K | $431K | $458K | $498K | $498K | $506K | $506K | $505K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$207,185 | -$213,285 | -$198,685 | -$180,185 | -$177,585 | -$160,885 | -$128,185 | -$67,285 | -$40,685 | -$585 | +$7,869 | +$7,213 | +$6,456 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.6% | -42.8% | -39.9% | -36.2% | -35.6% | -32.3% | -25.7% | -13.5% | -8.2% | -0.1% | +1.6% | +1.4% | +1.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $410K | $384K | $375K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $635K | $741K | $764K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$410K to $635K
44.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$375K to $764K
77.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $493K | $505K | +2.3% | |
| Federal Point (Tract 012108) | $486K | $539K | +11.0% | |
| Federal Point (Tract 012202) | $529K | $561K | +6.1% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011701) | $476K | $495K | +4.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010600) | $508K | $526K | +3.6% | |
| Ogden | $475K | $485K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $493K | $505K | +2.3% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010504) | $204K | $239K | +16.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011200) | $303K | $347K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011610) | $227K | $260K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011608) | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $493K | $505K | $389K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010501) | $256K | $266K | $136K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011609) | $313K | $329K | $129K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010700) | $224K | $246K | $123K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011906) | $204K | $227K | $117K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011503) | $223K | $253K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
New Hanover, NC · ZIP 28409 · Census Tract 37129012004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$498K
Downside (P10)
$375K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$505K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$764K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $291K | $285K | $300K | $318K | $321K | $338K | $370K | $431K | $458K | $498K | $498K | $506K | $506K | $505K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$207,185 | -$213,285 | -$198,685 | -$180,185 | -$177,585 | -$160,885 | -$128,185 | -$67,285 | -$40,685 | -$585 | +$7,869 | +$7,213 | +$6,456 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.6% | -42.8% | -39.9% | -36.2% | -35.6% | -32.3% | -25.7% | -13.5% | -8.2% | -0.1% | +1.6% | +1.4% | +1.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $410K | $384K | $375K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $635K | $741K | $764K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$410K to $635K
44.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$375K to $764K
77.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $493K | $505K | +2.3% | |
| Federal Point (Tract 012108) | $486K | $539K | +11.0% | |
| Federal Point (Tract 012202) | $529K | $561K | +6.1% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011701) | $476K | $495K | +4.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010600) | $508K | $526K | +3.6% | |
| Ogden | $475K | $485K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $493K | $505K | +2.3% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010504) | $204K | $239K | +16.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011200) | $303K | $347K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011610) | $227K | $260K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011608) | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $493K | $505K | $389K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010501) | $256K | $266K | $136K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011609) | $313K | $329K | $129K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010700) | $224K | $246K | $123K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011906) | $204K | $227K | $117K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011503) | $223K | $253K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
