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New Hanover, NC · ZIP 28409 · Census Tract 37129011800 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.18M
Downside (P10)
$842K
-29% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.27M
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.67M
+41% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -29% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $733K | $742K | $760K | $779K | $805K | $859K | $864K | $974K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| YoY Change | +1.3% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +3.4% | +6.7% | +0.5% | +12.7% | +7.8% | +7.8% | +4.7% | +5.0% | +2.3% | +0.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $948K | $909K | $842K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$948K to $1.45M
40.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$842K to $1.67M
64.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masonboro area | $1.17M | $1.27M | +8.8% | |
| Harnett | $580K | $649K | +12.0% | |
| Federal Point (Tract 012203) | $750K | $824K | +9.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 012012) | $1.04M | $1.11M | +6.7% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011703) | $1.02M | $1.08M | +6.0% | |
| Federal Point (Tract 012201) | $627K | $653K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masonboro area | $1.17M | $1.27M | +8.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010504) | $204K | $239K | +16.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011200) | $303K | $347K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011610) | $227K | $260K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011608) | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masonboro area | $1.17M | $1.27M | $827K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010501) | $256K | $266K | $136K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011609) | $313K | $329K | $129K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010700) | $224K | $246K | $123K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011906) | $204K | $227K | $117K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011503) | $223K | $253K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.