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New Hanover, NC · ZIP 28409 · Census Tract 37129012010 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$382K
Downside (P10)
$323K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$395K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$531K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $229K | $233K | $240K | $240K | $248K | $247K | $275K | $320K | $353K | $372K | $382K | $386K | $389K | $395K | $391K |
| YoY Change | +1.8% | +3.1% | +0.0% | +3.1% | -0.4% | +11.5% | +16.2% | +10.3% | +5.3% | +2.8% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +1.7% | -1.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $336K | $333K | $323K | $349K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $450K | $486K | $531K | $430K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$336K to $450K
29.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$349K to $430K
20.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masonboro area · Wilmington · (Tract 120.10) | $382K | $395K | +3.4% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 012009) | $389K | $437K | +12.3% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011905) | $379K | $423K | +11.6% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 012111) | $388K | $421K | +8.4% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010100) | $389K | $412K | +6.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010200) | $375K | $378K | +0.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masonboro area · Wilmington · (Tract 120.10) | $382K | $395K | +3.4% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010504) | $204K | $239K | +16.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011200) | $303K | $347K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011610) | $227K | $260K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011608) | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masonboro area · Wilmington · (Tract 120.10) | $382K | $395K | $208K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010501) | $256K | $266K | $136K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011609) | $313K | $329K | $129K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010700) | $224K | $246K | $123K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011906) | $204K | $227K | $117K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011503) | $223K | $253K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.