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Lenoir, NC · ZIP 28530 · Census Tract 37107010100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$87K
Downside (P10)
$71K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$92K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$127K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $76K | $78K | $80K | $89K | $93K | $85K | $76K | $76K | $79K | $84K | $87K | $88K | $89K | $92K | $87K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$11,493 | -$9,893 | -$7,793 | +$1,407 | +$5,307 | -$2,493 | -$11,593 | -$11,293 | -$8,793 | -$3,693 | +$236 | +$1,143 | +$4,891 | -$383 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -13.2% | -11.3% | -8.9% | +1.6% | +6.1% | -2.9% | -13.3% | -12.9% | -10.1% | -4.2% | +0.3% | +1.3% | +5.6% | -0.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $75K | $72K | $71K | $77K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $112K | $115K | $127K | $99K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$75K to $112K
42.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$77K to $99K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contentnea Neck | $86K | $92K | +7.9% | |
| Kinston (Tract 010500) | $69K | $76K | +9.8% | |
| Neuse | $109K | $119K | +9.1% | |
| Trent | $99K | $108K | +9.0% | |
| Kinston (Tract 010200) | $93K | $96K | +2.6% | |
| Kinston (Tract 010700) | $81K | $81K | -0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contentnea Neck | $86K | $92K | +7.9% | |
| Kinston | $161K | $185K | +15.2% | |
| Institute | $161K | $186K | +15.0% | |
| Vance | $120K | $136K | +12.8% | |
| Neuse | $164K | $181K | +10.6% | |
| Southwest area | $121K | $133K | +10.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contentnea Neck | $86K | $92K | $56K | |
| Kinston (Tract 010700) | $81K | $81K | $53K | |
| Kinston (Tract 010200) | $93K | $96K | $45K | |
| Kinston (Tract 010500) | $69K | $76K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lenoir, NC · ZIP 28530 · Census Tract 37107010100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$87K
Downside (P10)
$71K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$92K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$127K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $76K | $78K | $80K | $89K | $93K | $85K | $76K | $76K | $79K | $84K | $87K | $88K | $89K | $92K | $87K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$11,493 | -$9,893 | -$7,793 | +$1,407 | +$5,307 | -$2,493 | -$11,593 | -$11,293 | -$8,793 | -$3,693 | +$236 | +$1,143 | +$4,891 | -$383 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -13.2% | -11.3% | -8.9% | +1.6% | +6.1% | -2.9% | -13.3% | -12.9% | -10.1% | -4.2% | +0.3% | +1.3% | +5.6% | -0.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $75K | $72K | $71K | $77K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $112K | $115K | $127K | $99K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$75K to $112K
42.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$77K to $99K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contentnea Neck | $86K | $92K | +7.9% | |
| Kinston (Tract 010500) | $69K | $76K | +9.8% | |
| Neuse | $109K | $119K | +9.1% | |
| Trent | $99K | $108K | +9.0% | |
| Kinston (Tract 010200) | $93K | $96K | +2.6% | |
| Kinston (Tract 010700) | $81K | $81K | -0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contentnea Neck | $86K | $92K | +7.9% | |
| Kinston | $161K | $185K | +15.2% | |
| Institute | $161K | $186K | +15.0% | |
| Vance | $120K | $136K | +12.8% | |
| Neuse | $164K | $181K | +10.6% | |
| Southwest area | $121K | $133K | +10.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contentnea Neck | $86K | $92K | $56K | |
| Kinston (Tract 010700) | $81K | $81K | $53K | |
| Kinston (Tract 010200) | $93K | $96K | $45K | |
| Kinston (Tract 010500) | $69K | $76K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
