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Catawba, NC · ZIP 28609 · Census Tract 37035011501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$261K
Downside (P10)
$199K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$255K
-2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$365K
+40% by 2030
Base case: -2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $114K | $147K | $145K | $151K | $142K | $152K | $175K | $203K | $212K | $256K | $261K | $260K | $261K | $255K |
| YoY Change | +28.8% | -1.8% | +4.2% | -5.6% | +6.5% | +15.2% | +16.3% | +4.5% | +20.7% | +1.8% | -0.1% | +0.3% | -2.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $225K | $211K | $199K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $329K | $352K | $365K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$225K to $329K
40.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$199K to $365K
64.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Creek area | $261K | $255K | -2.3% | |
| Hickory | $248K | $304K | +22.4% | |
| Clines (Tract 010102) | $263K | $290K | +10.5% | |
| Clines (Tract 010301) | $258K | $284K | +10.2% | |
| Jacobs Fork | $246K | $263K | +6.8% | |
| Clines (Tract 010203) | $257K | $270K | +5.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Creek area | $261K | $255K | -2.3% | |
| Hickory (Tract 010403) | $248K | $304K | +22.4% | |
| Hickory (Tract 010404) | $223K | $268K | +20.1% | |
| Hickory (Tract 010501) | $465K | $552K | +18.8% | |
| Hickory (Tract 010304) | $234K | $267K | +14.1% | |
| Hickory (Tract 010502) | $395K | $448K | +13.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Creek area | $261K | $255K | $165K | |
| Hickory (Tract 010402) | $177K | $194K | $98K | |
| Hickory (Tract 010700) | $115K | $127K | $95K | |
| Newton | $198K | $203K | $93K | |
| Hickory (Tract 010900) | $126K | $133K | $80K | |
| Hickory (Tract 011000) | $112K | $123K | $71K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.