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Carteret, NC · ZIP 28531 · Census Tract 37031970200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$337K
Downside (P10)
$264K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$354K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$482K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $222K | $231K | $209K | $203K | $234K | $243K | $213K | $264K | $296K | $313K | $337K | $332K | $350K | $354K |
| YoY Change | +4.0% | -9.5% | -2.8% | +15.1% | +4.0% | -12.3% | +23.9% | +11.8% | +6.0% | +7.7% | -1.5% | +5.2% | +1.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $266K | $266K | $264K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $416K | $450K | $482K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$266K to $416K
45.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$264K to $482K
61.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harkers Island | $328K | $354K | +7.8% | |
| Morehead (Tract 970606) | $392K | $429K | +9.3% | |
| Davis area | $284K | $307K | +8.3% | |
| Morehead (Tract 970502) | $371K | $401K | +8.1% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970806) | $384K | $412K | +7.3% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970801) | $308K | $324K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harkers Island | $328K | $354K | +7.8% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970904) | $491K | $567K | +15.5% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970903) | $722K | $817K | +13.2% | |
| Newport | $213K | $240K | +12.7% | |
| Beaufort | $443K | $495K | +11.6% | |
| Morehead | $606K | $671K | +10.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harkers Island | $328K | $354K | $218K | |
| Morehead City (Tract 970402) | $245K | $250K | $141K | |
| Morehead City (Tract 970401) | $161K | $178K | $117K | |
| Morehead (Tract 970501) | $194K | $205K | $104K | |
| Atlantic | $170K | $185K | $87K | |
| Morehead (Tract 970603) | $122K | $131K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.