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Burke, NC · ZIP 28612 · Census Tract 37023021203 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$131K
Downside (P10)
$108K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$140K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$181K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $80K | $76K | $89K | $96K | $95K | $107K | $120K | $124K | $151K | $128K | $131K | $131K | $138K | $140K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$50,595 | -$54,495 | -$41,895 | -$35,095 | -$35,595 | -$23,495 | -$10,995 | -$7,195 | +$20,305 | -$3,395 | -$36 | +$6,698 | +$9,067 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.7% | -41.6% | -32.0% | -26.8% | -27.2% | -17.9% | -8.4% | -5.5% | +15.5% | -2.6% | -0.0% | +5.1% | +6.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $112K | $114K | $108K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $159K | $167K | $181K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$112K to $159K
35.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$108K to $181K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Fork | $130K | $140K | +7.8% | |
| Silver Creek (Tract 020301) | $164K | $184K | +12.6% | |
| Morganton | $148K | $164K | +10.5% | |
| Lower Creek area | $154K | $169K | +9.7% | |
| Icard | $146K | $159K | +8.9% | |
| Silver Creek (Tract 020304) | $154K | $168K | +8.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Fork | $130K | $140K | +7.8% | |
| Silver Creek | $164K | $184K | +12.6% | |
| Icard | $165K | $183K | +11.5% | |
| Upper Creek area | $218K | $243K | +11.4% | |
| Morganton | $148K | $164K | +10.5% | |
| Lower Creek area | $154K | $169K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Fork | $130K | $140K | $72K | |
| Upper Fork area | $187K | $188K | $97K | |
| Lower Creek area | $154K | $169K | $93K | |
| Morganton (Tract 021301) | $148K | $164K | $87K | |
| Morganton (Tract 020600) | $181K | $187K | $85K | |
| Silver Creek | $154K | $168K | $82K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Burke, NC · ZIP 28612 · Census Tract 37023021203 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$131K
Downside (P10)
$108K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$140K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$181K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $80K | $76K | $89K | $96K | $95K | $107K | $120K | $124K | $151K | $128K | $131K | $131K | $138K | $140K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$50,595 | -$54,495 | -$41,895 | -$35,095 | -$35,595 | -$23,495 | -$10,995 | -$7,195 | +$20,305 | -$3,395 | -$36 | +$6,698 | +$9,067 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.7% | -41.6% | -32.0% | -26.8% | -27.2% | -17.9% | -8.4% | -5.5% | +15.5% | -2.6% | -0.0% | +5.1% | +6.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $112K | $114K | $108K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $159K | $167K | $181K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$112K to $159K
35.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$108K to $181K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Fork | $130K | $140K | +7.8% | |
| Silver Creek (Tract 020301) | $164K | $184K | +12.6% | |
| Morganton | $148K | $164K | +10.5% | |
| Lower Creek area | $154K | $169K | +9.7% | |
| Icard | $146K | $159K | +8.9% | |
| Silver Creek (Tract 020304) | $154K | $168K | +8.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Fork | $130K | $140K | +7.8% | |
| Silver Creek | $164K | $184K | +12.6% | |
| Icard | $165K | $183K | +11.5% | |
| Upper Creek area | $218K | $243K | +11.4% | |
| Morganton | $148K | $164K | +10.5% | |
| Lower Creek area | $154K | $169K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Fork | $130K | $140K | $72K | |
| Upper Fork area | $187K | $188K | $97K | |
| Lower Creek area | $154K | $169K | $93K | |
| Morganton (Tract 021301) | $148K | $164K | $87K | |
| Morganton (Tract 020600) | $181K | $187K | $85K | |
| Silver Creek | $154K | $168K | $82K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
