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Buncombe, NC · ZIP 28804 · Census Tract 37021001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$297K
Downside (P10)
$273K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$323K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$398K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $139K | $161K | $175K | $185K | $215K | $237K | $229K | $243K | $287K | $297K | $307K | $316K | $323K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$153,112 | -$158,112 | -$135,612 | -$121,612 | -$112,012 | -$81,812 | -$59,912 | -$67,512 | -$53,812 | -$10,112 | +$10,746 | +$19,270 | +$26,883 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.6% | -53.3% | -45.7% | -41.0% | -37.8% | -27.6% | -20.2% | -22.8% | -18.1% | -3.4% | +3.6% | +6.5% | +9.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $261K | $275K | $273K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $359K | $373K | $398K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$261K to $359K
31.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$273K to $398K
38.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodfin | $292K | $323K | +10.9% | |
| Asheville | $301K | $336K | +11.4% | |
| Swannanoa | $293K | $319K | +9.0% | |
| Asheville area | $296K | $321K | +8.6% | |
| Lower Hominy area (Tract 002306) | $302K | $317K | +4.9% | |
| Lower Hominy area (Tract 002506) | $296K | $308K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodfin | $292K | $323K | +10.9% | |
| Lower Hominy area | $482K | $569K | +18.1% | |
| Limestone area | $1.38M | $1.59M | +14.9% | |
| Avery Creek | $691K | $793K | +14.7% | |
| Black Mountain | $364K | $416K | +14.3% | |
| Asheville | $430K | $492K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodfin | $292K | $323K | $124K | |
| Upper Hominy (Tract 002504) | $334K | $354K | $149K | |
| Lower Hominy area | $302K | $317K | $130K | |
| Upper Hominy (Tract 002401) | $156K | $163K | $113K | |
| Asheville | $163K | $172K | $109K | |
| Asheville area | $95K | $99K | $56K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Buncombe, NC · ZIP 28804 · Census Tract 37021001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$297K
Downside (P10)
$273K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$323K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$398K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $139K | $161K | $175K | $185K | $215K | $237K | $229K | $243K | $287K | $297K | $307K | $316K | $323K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$153,112 | -$158,112 | -$135,612 | -$121,612 | -$112,012 | -$81,812 | -$59,912 | -$67,512 | -$53,812 | -$10,112 | +$10,746 | +$19,270 | +$26,883 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.6% | -53.3% | -45.7% | -41.0% | -37.8% | -27.6% | -20.2% | -22.8% | -18.1% | -3.4% | +3.6% | +6.5% | +9.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $261K | $275K | $273K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $359K | $373K | $398K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$261K to $359K
31.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$273K to $398K
38.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodfin | $292K | $323K | +10.9% | |
| Asheville | $301K | $336K | +11.4% | |
| Swannanoa | $293K | $319K | +9.0% | |
| Asheville area | $296K | $321K | +8.6% | |
| Lower Hominy area (Tract 002306) | $302K | $317K | +4.9% | |
| Lower Hominy area (Tract 002506) | $296K | $308K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodfin | $292K | $323K | +10.9% | |
| Lower Hominy area | $482K | $569K | +18.1% | |
| Limestone area | $1.38M | $1.59M | +14.9% | |
| Avery Creek | $691K | $793K | +14.7% | |
| Black Mountain | $364K | $416K | +14.3% | |
| Asheville | $430K | $492K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodfin | $292K | $323K | $124K | |
| Upper Hominy (Tract 002504) | $334K | $354K | $149K | |
| Lower Hominy area | $302K | $317K | $130K | |
| Upper Hominy (Tract 002401) | $156K | $163K | $113K | |
| Asheville | $163K | $172K | $109K | |
| Asheville area | $95K | $99K | $56K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
