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Sherburne, MN · ZIP 56304 · Census Tract 27141031500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$221K
Downside (P10)
$201K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$251K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$318K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $141K | $137K | $135K | $136K | $144K | $143K | $159K | $187K | $211K | $217K | $221K | $233K | $252K | $251K | $223K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,878 | -$83,878 | -$86,478 | -$84,778 | -$76,978 | -$77,878 | -$61,878 | -$33,778 | -$10,378 | -$4,178 | +$12,042 | +$30,917 | +$29,974 | +$2,428 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.1% | -38.0% | -39.1% | -38.4% | -34.8% | -35.2% | -28.0% | -15.3% | -4.7% | -1.9% | +5.4% | +14.0% | +13.6% | +1.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $206K | $198K | $201K | $198K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $286K | $315K | $318K | $256K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$206K to $286K
34.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$198K to $256K
25.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haven | $219K | $251K | +14.5% | |
| Becker | $322K | $371K | +15.3% | |
| Elk River (Tract 030503) | $339K | $371K | +9.6% | |
| Elk River (Tract 030506) | $329K | $357K | +8.5% | |
| Big Lake area | $343K | $362K | +5.6% | |
| Livonia | $311K | $324K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haven | $219K | $251K | +14.5% | |
| Palmer area | $382K | $442K | +15.5% | |
| Becker (Tract 030407) | $322K | $371K | +15.3% | |
| Baldwin | $385K | $441K | +14.4% | |
| Becker (Tract 030408) | $373K | $427K | +14.4% | |
| Big Lake | $414K | $473K | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haven | $219K | $251K | $116K | |
| Clear Lake area | $420K | $460K | $194K | |
| Elk River (Tract 030503) | $339K | $371K | $180K | |
| Livonia | $311K | $324K | $176K | |
| Elk River (Tract 030506) | $329K | $357K | $171K | |
| Big Lake area | $352K | $376K | $155K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sherburne, MN · ZIP 56304 · Census Tract 27141031500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$221K
Downside (P10)
$201K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$251K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$318K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $141K | $137K | $135K | $136K | $144K | $143K | $159K | $187K | $211K | $217K | $221K | $233K | $252K | $251K | $223K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,878 | -$83,878 | -$86,478 | -$84,778 | -$76,978 | -$77,878 | -$61,878 | -$33,778 | -$10,378 | -$4,178 | +$12,042 | +$30,917 | +$29,974 | +$2,428 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.1% | -38.0% | -39.1% | -38.4% | -34.8% | -35.2% | -28.0% | -15.3% | -4.7% | -1.9% | +5.4% | +14.0% | +13.6% | +1.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $206K | $198K | $201K | $198K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $286K | $315K | $318K | $256K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$206K to $286K
34.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$198K to $256K
25.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haven | $219K | $251K | +14.5% | |
| Becker | $322K | $371K | +15.3% | |
| Elk River (Tract 030503) | $339K | $371K | +9.6% | |
| Elk River (Tract 030506) | $329K | $357K | +8.5% | |
| Big Lake area | $343K | $362K | +5.6% | |
| Livonia | $311K | $324K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haven | $219K | $251K | +14.5% | |
| Palmer area | $382K | $442K | +15.5% | |
| Becker (Tract 030407) | $322K | $371K | +15.3% | |
| Baldwin | $385K | $441K | +14.4% | |
| Becker (Tract 030408) | $373K | $427K | +14.4% | |
| Big Lake | $414K | $473K | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haven | $219K | $251K | $116K | |
| Clear Lake area | $420K | $460K | $194K | |
| Elk River (Tract 030503) | $339K | $371K | $180K | |
| Livonia | $311K | $324K | $176K | |
| Elk River (Tract 030506) | $329K | $357K | $171K | |
| Big Lake area | $352K | $376K | $155K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
