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Douglas, MN · ZIP 56308 · Census Tract 27041451000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$404K
Downside (P10)
$342K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$447K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$589K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $248K | $260K | $280K | $285K | $291K | $304K | $349K | $364K | $397K | $404K | $414K | $418K | $447K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | +4.7% | +7.7% | +1.6% | +2.1% | +4.5% | +15.1% | +4.0% | +9.2% | +1.7% | +2.6% | +0.8% | +7.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $339K | $330K | $342K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $493K | $529K | $589K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$339K to $493K
37.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$342K to $589K
55.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ida area | $405K | $447K | +10.5% | |
| Lake Mary area | $431K | $494K | +14.7% | |
| Leaf Valley area | $361K | $372K | +3.1% | |
| Alexandria | $332K | $356K | +7.0% | |
| Belle River area | $332K | $336K | +1.0% | |
| Orange area | $301K | $310K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ida area | $405K | $447K | +10.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450703) | $291K | $340K | +16.6% | |
| Lake Mary area | $431K | $494K | +14.7% | |
| Alexandria area | $298K | $336K | +12.8% | |
| Urness area | $284K | $320K | +12.6% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450704) | $219K | $243K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ida area | $405K | $447K | $247K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450704) | $219K | $243K | $133K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450601) | $288K | $313K | $142K | |
| Orange area | $301K | $310K | $147K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450702) | $332K | $356K | $168K | |
| Alexandria area | $298K | $336K | $172K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.