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Carver, MN · ZIP 55339 · Census Tract 27019091201 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$318K
Downside (P10)
$268K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$354K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$560K
+76% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +76%. The model forecasts this with 55% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $169K | $173K | $181K | $194K | $200K | $212K | $229K | $272K | $294K | $309K | $318K | $331K | $352K | $354K |
| YoY Change | +2.0% | +4.7% | +7.0% | +3.2% | +6.0% | +8.0% | +18.8% | +8.1% | +5.3% | +2.7% | +4.1% | +6.5% | +0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $267K | $257K | $268K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $410K | $470K | $560K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$267K to $410K
43.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$268K to $560K
82.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young America | $321K | $354K | +10.3% | |
| Watertown area | $319K | $358K | +12.2% | |
| Chaska (Tract 090801) | $360K | $404K | +12.1% | |
| Chaska (Tract 090901) | $383K | $429K | +11.9% | |
| Camden area | $365K | $393K | +7.8% | |
| Chaska (Tract 091001) | $315K | $333K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young America | $321K | $354K | +10.3% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090502) | $778K | $927K | +19.2% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090702) | $579K | $676K | +16.7% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090503) | $653K | $746K | +14.3% | |
| Chaska | $573K | $652K | +13.9% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090704) | $511K | $579K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young America | $321K | $354K | $292K | |
| Chaska (Tract 091001) | $315K | $333K | $220K | |
| Waconia | $418K | $440K | $203K | |
| Watertown area | $319K | $358K | $190K | |
| Chanhassen | $432K | $446K | $181K | |
| Chaska (Tract 090801) | $360K | $404K | $177K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.