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Carver, MN · ZIP 55386 · Census Tract 27019090402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$540K
Downside (P10)
$417K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$579K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$791K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $341K | $352K | $375K | $388K | $385K | $407K | $426K | $486K | $531K | $542K | $540K | $557K | $558K | $579K | $561K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$198,806 | -$187,606 | -$165,506 | -$152,506 | -$154,606 | -$133,306 | -$114,506 | -$53,806 | -$8,706 | +$1,794 | +$17,453 | +$17,954 | +$39,011 | +$21,268 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.8% | -34.7% | -30.6% | -28.2% | -28.6% | -24.7% | -21.2% | -10.0% | -1.6% | +0.3% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +7.2% | +3.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $448K | $415K | $417K | $499K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $650K | $714K | $791K | $627K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$448K to $650K
36.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$499K to $627K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $541K | $579K | +7.1% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090702) | $579K | $676K | +16.7% | |
| Chaska | $573K | $652K | +13.9% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090704) | $511K | $579K | +13.3% | |
| Waconia | $487K | $512K | +4.9% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090703) | $488K | $489K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $541K | $579K | +7.1% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090502) | $778K | $927K | +19.2% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090702) | $579K | $676K | +16.7% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090503) | $653K | $746K | +14.3% | |
| Chaska | $573K | $652K | +13.9% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090704) | $511K | $579K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $541K | $579K | $374K | |
| Chaska (Tract 091001) | $315K | $333K | $220K | |
| Waconia | $418K | $440K | $203K | |
| Watertown area | $319K | $358K | $190K | |
| Chanhassen | $432K | $446K | $181K | |
| Chaska (Tract 090801) | $360K | $404K | $177K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Carver, MN · ZIP 55386 · Census Tract 27019090402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$540K
Downside (P10)
$417K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$579K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$791K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $341K | $352K | $375K | $388K | $385K | $407K | $426K | $486K | $531K | $542K | $540K | $557K | $558K | $579K | $561K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$198,806 | -$187,606 | -$165,506 | -$152,506 | -$154,606 | -$133,306 | -$114,506 | -$53,806 | -$8,706 | +$1,794 | +$17,453 | +$17,954 | +$39,011 | +$21,268 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.8% | -34.7% | -30.6% | -28.2% | -28.6% | -24.7% | -21.2% | -10.0% | -1.6% | +0.3% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +7.2% | +3.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $448K | $415K | $417K | $499K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $650K | $714K | $791K | $627K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$448K to $650K
36.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$499K to $627K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $541K | $579K | +7.1% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090702) | $579K | $676K | +16.7% | |
| Chaska | $573K | $652K | +13.9% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090704) | $511K | $579K | +13.3% | |
| Waconia | $487K | $512K | +4.9% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090703) | $488K | $489K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $541K | $579K | +7.1% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090502) | $778K | $927K | +19.2% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090702) | $579K | $676K | +16.7% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090503) | $653K | $746K | +14.3% | |
| Chaska | $573K | $652K | +13.9% | |
| Chanhassen (Tract 090704) | $511K | $579K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $541K | $579K | $374K | |
| Chaska (Tract 091001) | $315K | $333K | $220K | |
| Waconia | $418K | $440K | $203K | |
| Watertown area | $319K | $358K | $190K | |
| Chanhassen | $432K | $446K | $181K | |
| Chaska (Tract 090801) | $360K | $404K | $177K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
